http://www.tuxedo.org/~esr/jargon/html/entry/bug.html http://www.jamesshuggins.com/h/tek1/first_computer_bug.htm
At 11:13 PM 12/30/01 -0800, Jordan Hayes wrote:
>Frankly, I'll be glad to see the lot of self-styled "programmers"
>headed back to Barnes and Noble. Yes, I do want a bookmark, thanks.
>
>/jordan
i'd be curious what doug, brad, and the more market/economic analysis minded think of their responses to the downturn, the pessimism, and their faith in Moore's Law. the thread begins with these posts below and continues at the archives, address for archives appended below.
forwarded from: "Adam L. Beberg" <beberg at mithral.com> To: <fork at xent.com> Subject: Dot Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.33.0201011342080.22166-100000 at watcher.mithral.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII List-Id: Friends of Rohit Khare <fork.xent.com>
So, in my job hunting, I come across a 5 years experience win32+unix kernel driver devel job at HP. Contract/hourly, not a salary gig so should pay decent. "well, they'll go as high as 32$/hr, but they wont like it." Talking to the recruiter, it sounds like this is becoming the norm with the suppy/demand cliff and all. And anyone who thinks this is gonna rebound is on crack. Noone wants to pay for bits anymore, people under 20 can't even comprehend paying for bits.
I can go be a union electrician and make more then that working with all my non-farmer relatives that are in construction. I think between my cousins, everything but electrician is covered, AND I would get to build things!
I really miss building things, and being able to explain what I do to people, and women not moving away in horror when I tell them what I do for that matter. Atoms, everyone needs atoms, no Moores law in atoms.
Me thinks it's just about time to exit the sinking ship known as the U.S.S. Geek, it's just not a happening gig anymore.
- Adam L. "Duncan" Beberg
From: "Adam L. Beberg" <beberg at mithral.com> To: <fork at xent.com> Subject: How Moore's law stabbed us in the back Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.33.0201011440100.22346-100000 at watcher.mithral.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII
So lets get right to it, Moore's law is fierce beast we lost control oh and his invisible hand punched us in the face, among other places.
A simplification of price is: Price = Demand / Supply.
Moores law controls supply, making it double every so often - 18 months is the usual number. The problem with this, is that to maintain the price demand has to rise just as fast. Remember how the computer you wanted was always $5,000 no matter what? You really wanted it to, you demanded it, your friends mocked you if you had last years model.
But no Moore. My computer does more then I can possibly use it for. I can't click the mouse fast enough to slow it down no matter how much Microsoft tries. A PDA packs enough power to do anything I need, just needs a real keyboard and monitor, forget the desktop PC.
Demand stopped. People have all they can use. No new killer apps in sight. You know it, I know it. Moore knows it too. If i want to talk to someone I use my free phone minutes. If I want video I turn on the satalite box - not some broadband device. They are shipping CD's in cereal boxes now which preaty much means they are next to free, 64MB of RAM is $3, with $11 of shipping. Moving a couple grams of atoms pays, moving bits doesnt.
So that new PC you're drooling over might be $700 w/17" monitor included. And this is going to half every 18 months or so. Soon the PC will come in the cereal box, and they will be a choking hazard to boot!
Now, if what your selling is going down in price, your supplies better be dropping to. Since the only variable cost in the tech industry (moore controls the cost of atoms) is human labor... guess what.
Have a nice day now.
- Adam L. "Duncan" Beberg
http://www.mithral.com/~beberg/
read the FoRK archives for more on this discussion.
http://xent.com/pipermail/fork/2002-January/thread.html