US economy turning?

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Jan 4 13:23:40 PST 2002


Michael Pollak wrote:


>What do you think of the theory discussed in the Sunday Times by David
>Leonhardt that slow recoveries, like the one we had at the beginning of
>the 90s, will now become the norm rather than the exception because of the
>differences that come from being a service economy?

I wouldn't say bec of a service economy so much as an overhang of debt and the bad feelings and depleted resources after a bubble bursts. Slow recovery has a lot of followers on WS and in the press, which would be good for bonds (unless, as Seth suggested, there were a flight from the US$) but not for stocks. Stocks are priced for a recovery in profitability, which would be hard to manage if growth stayed sluggish.

Doug



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