================================== NEW DEMOCRATS ONLINE -- NEW DEM DAILY -- Pithy news and commentary from the DLC. ================================== [ http://www.ndol.org ]
14-JAN-02
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1.) The Rise of the Hispanic Center
Among serious political junkies, there is no topic of greater interest than the future direction of Hispanic voters. Aside from its critical importance in a growing number of key states, the Hispanic vote is the fastest-growing segment of the electorate nationally, and is increasingly a "swing vote," leaning Democratic overall but open to Republicans on a variety of issues. The President's political top gun, Karl Rove, is said to be obsessed with making gains among Hispanic voters. Among Democrats, the near-miss candidacies of two left-bent Hispanic politicians in last year's big mayoral elections in Los Angeles and New York led many observers to predict a future mobilization of Hispanic voters as part of a liberal ethnic coalition.
But the big story in Hispanic politics may turn out to be not on the left or right, but in the center. That's the conclusion reached by New America Foundation Senior Fellow Gregory Rodriguez in the upcoming issue of Blueprint magazine.
Even as 2001 Los Angeles mayoral candidate Antonio Villaraigosa suffered a narrow defeat as the leader of a "left-labor- Latino" coalition, says Rodriguez, something else was happening down-ballot. "While no ethnic or ideological movement swept the city last July, Los Angeles did move quietly -- and quite naturally -- into a new political era as City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo became the first Latino to assume citywide office in more than a century. Alex Padilla was elected city council president, and Councilman Nick Pacheco was selected to chair the city's powerful Budget and Finance Committee. Contrary to breathless news analyses of the election, it is really these New Democrats who represent the future of Latino politics in the West."
Hispanic politics has been at this juncture before, Rodriguez reminds us. "A generation ago, Chicano activists imagined coming to political power by way of a populist, left-wing agenda. They hoped that a shared ideology could build an inclusive multiethnic political movement. By the mid-1970s, however, their hopes had dissipated." But a new breed of moderate Hispanic politicians emerged, typified by San Antonio, Texas Mayor Henry Cisneros, who built successful coalitions that appealed to Anglo voters along with the Hispanic "base." "Nationally, Mexican- American politics continue to build on the Cisneros example," says Rodriguez. "This is evident in several cities along the U.S.- Mexico border and in New MexicoÖ. In San Antonio, the newly elected mayor, Ed Garza, shares the moderate post-baby boomer outlook of L.A.'s Padilla and Pacheco."
In other words, had Villaraigosa won, he "would have represented the last triumph of the Chicano movement of the late 1960s and early 1970s rather than the first chapter of a new Latino political order." That's because "expanding numbers, growing ethnic confidence and a concomitant generational shift have all converged to move Latino politics further away from the activism of the 1960s and 1970s. Calls for ideological discipline and ethnic solidarity will become increasingly difficult to sustain."
Meanwhile, centrists like Delgadillo, Padilla and Pacheco have an opportunity to make their mark, not just on Los Angeles or on California, but on the emerging profile of Hispanic politics nationally. Just last week Delgadillo (our New Democrat of the Week) made big news in Los Angeles by securing city council approval of his plan for "neighborhood prosecutors," a signature New Democrat initiative in a city where poor relations between law enforcement officials and minority communities have been a source of trouble for decades.
"For all the talk of an emerging Latino-left politics in Los Angeles," concludes Rodriguez, "the city's three highest-ranking Latino officials are avowed moderates and the next major Latino mayoral candidate is likely to be a moderate with a centrist coalition." That's good news for New Democrats, and as an indicator of the direction of Hispanic politics generally, a source of sleepless nights for Karl Rove.
Further Reading:
"Mexican-American Moderation," by Gregory Rodriguez, Blueprint magazine: http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=104&subid=117&contentid=250012
"New Dem Of The Week," L.A. City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo: http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?contentid=250004&subid=117&kaid=104
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