Charles Jannuzi wrote:
>
> Well, another current American-led line of analysis is that Japan has
> foolishly poured a trillion dollars into wasteful public works that DID NOT
> benefit anyone but inefficient construction firms (although you have to
> remember this is exactly what the US's Japan experts and trade reps called
> for over ten years ago). Some Japanese believe this too (but I say it still
> has benefits that go beyond what the US spends on military,if only they'd
> spend even a fraction of it on restoring the environments they destroy).
>
> A little recent history. One of the reasons why the Japanese government made
> the Ministry of Construction so powerful in the past 12 years was, in part,
> a response to demands from the US trade representatives. The US was going to
> balance trade by getting the Japanese to invest all those surpluses into
> public works (and at the height of the bubble years it only fueled the
> flames, since the Japan bubble was a real market meltdown in both real
> estate and equities).
>
> The resulting infrastructure (one goofy prime minister--the one Bush threw
> up on--used to always talk about making Japan a lifestyle superpower) would
> turn Japanese into American-style consumers. This sort of stuff got really
> big under Clinton because his bunch of wonk idiots were always trolling
> thinktanks and books for NEW ideas in how to DEAL WITH the Japanese. After
> old labor Dem Kantor was gone, I think the basic line was cheapen the dollar
> against the yen til trade is balanced (which even had Japanese automakers
> scrambling to re-outfit US auto parts makers so as to import the parts from
> the US, and Toyota outfitting plush new dealerships to sell a handful of
> Saturns ).
>
> But, anyway, to answer your question. Most of the dense networks around the
> big cities, I mean the megalopolises--Tokyo, Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto (Kansai),
> Nagoya--consist of public and private subways and private rail networks that
> stretch out to the suburbs and exurbs.
>
> These networks have to break even or make money, so that requires packing
> them with people during rush hour. And they do.
> I don't think anyone who has ever visited a large Japanese city would say,
> compared to Europe even, they have neglected subways and commuter trains.
> They have, however, neglected anyone who wants to walk on the surface or
> cycle.
>
> Car culture is really big here, too. That's one reason why they got so good
> at designing and building them (of course, if markets ruled or maybe God,
> any country that gave the world the Pinto, the Vega and the Gremlin would
> long ago been forced to give up trying).
>
> Back to Japan. The city-to-city rail extends all over the country, has been
> heavily subsidized, and did get extended during the last ten years.
> Construction gets subsidized, but the idea is to get them to make money
> then. I think that's an important distinction you have to make when
> discussing the pros and cons of public transportation. Subsidize the network
> and then the rail lines can provide great service and make some money.
> Afterall, it was public subsidy that gave the US it's highway networks. A
> toll road is no different than a privatized rail line in that way.
>
> The city-to-city rail is also a 30 billion dollar hole the government has
> tried to marketize by breaking JR up and turning it into regional companies,
> with OVERPRICED stock and everything. Of the four JR companies, two make
> money: JR East makes solid money, because it connects Tokyo and Nagoya. JR
> West makes a bit of money (but has to use profits to subsidize unprofitable
> lines). The other two have never seen profits as far as I know. (This info.
> might be a bit old since I lost interest in this stuff 5 years ago.) There
> is quite a bit of private rail between cities, too, if the cities are close
> together--like Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe. In the Kansai, you can get anywhere
> without using JR.
>
> Anyway, the public works push during the past 12 years has emphasized roads
> and airports--which is what the American trade reps wanted (it started under
> Bush for balancing trade, and then got more rationale when Japan fell into a
> deep recession, like the day the yen hit 79 to the dollar and for a brief
> while Japan had an economy the value of which exceeded the US's).
>
> Now, let's take it to the real world. I live in Fukui, a 'rural' (for Japan)
> prefecture on the Japan Sea side of Honshu, about halfway between Kyoto and
> Kanazawa (if you have a map handy). There are plenty of small cities, towns,
> and villages in this region, but it can't support private rail networks. The
> few left (two lines just closed this year) have always required subsidy from
> local governments. JR West is here but there are , as yet, no bullet trains.
> However, the new 'shinkansen' bullet train--the Hokuriku Shinkansen--is now
> being constructed (with really horrific devastation of fragile mountain
> environments to go with it--I was a trout fisherman).
>
> Meanwhile, there has been all sorts of road construction. If I showed you a
> picture of 'rural' Fukui, what with all the buildings, roads, and rail
> lines, you'd think it was New Jersey somewhere between NYC and Philadelphia.
>
> So, have they been shorting public transportation? The subways are already
> there and run everywhere under the major cities and didn't need expansion,
> but the heavy population density means they will be packed if everyone
> leaves work at the same time to go home. Most Americans have no idea what a
> Japanese city is like. Around the business centers are the rail hubs, and
> people move in dense waves 3-5 levels below ground. If you could see
> Shinjuku station in Tokyo at 6 in the afternoon, you'd get the picture.
>
> . Private rail lines around cities and out into the suburbs have to make
> money to stay in operations, and they do, which means they want maximum
> ridership on every scheduled train if possible. This, by the way, is one
> reason some office workers don't go home til late; they go out, get drunk,
> wander around the red light district for a while, and go home on a late
> train where they can sleep (which is easy to do if you live at the end of
> the line).
>
> And the heavily subsidized bullet trains have been extended to the point
> some of the lines will NOT make money. Everone knows the bullet train line
> to the Olympic site in Nagano was just pork (though I suppose a lot of urban
> skiiers now use it to get to the slopes).
>
> Meanwhile, road and bridge construction continues unabated, as far as I can
> see. And this includes putting expressways through some of the most
> treacherous terrain and fragile mountain environments you will find
> anywhere, like in Gifu Prefecture, just east of Fukui.
>
> Hope I answered the question.
>
> Charles Jannuzi
>
> - --
> Michael Perelman
--
Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901