Budget follies

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Thu Jan 24 06:56:55 PST 2002


In cutting the forecast of the 10 year surplus by $4 trillion, from last year's forecast of $5.6 to the current forecast of $1.6 trillion, the Congressional Budget office allots the blame as follows:

$1,280 billion to the Bush tax cut

$929 billion to the recession

$562 billion to increased interest on the national debt

$550 billion to higher spending

My question is: I could swear Max said the original forecasts included one recession occuring over that 10 year period. But the firgures above make it look like it was a big surprise to them that a recession would come soon after what was already the longest boom in post-war history. And it hasn't been a very bad recession either, so far GNP-wise, has it?

So my first impression is that the original forecast had a trillion dollar transparent gimmick in it, namely pretending there wouldn't be a recession soon. Is this wrong?

Michael

__________________________________________________________________________ Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at panix.com



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