> > They didn't forecast the exact timing of a recession. The average
>> growth rates they predicted over the full period were low enough to
>> allow for the requisite number of recessions within that timespan.
>
>Is it merely cynical (or rhetorical) to suggest that everything is going as
>planned for Bush & Co. with respect to the budget. There's some quote in
>the nyt today something to the effect that the deficits and shrinking
>surplus will have place an inevitable squeeze on all federal programs.
>Isn't that precisely what they wanted? To starve the federal government to
>death? Except for Defense spending, of course, wink, wink. In other words,
>why are we so surprised?
>
>A fool who can't watch tv and chew pretzels at the same time--or a masterful
>politician?
You don't have to be a genius to figure out that strategy - Reagan & Stockman pulled it off 20 years ago.
Also, a recession early in a presidential term is entirely normal. W's father, 41, was unlucky in that his recession came late in his term.
Doug