>A coworker from Nigeria tells me that claims that huge percentages of the
>population of sub-Saharan Africa are HIV-positive are crap. Anybody have any
>idea who's right, him or the official figures? Are stats on African AIDS
>overblown?
I would go with the official figures - I have not heard any credible criticism of them. In many developing and E. European countries, there is a peculiar subculture of mistrust of any offcial statistics and the stipulation that the critics somehow "know" the true extent of the phenomenon in question. Of course, such views are absurd on its face - why would the gov't public false figures, and how would the dissidents know the truth.
As I understand, there is a considerable popular AIDS denial culture in countries like South Africa, which force otherwise reasonable politicians like Mr. Mbeki, to espouse weird views, such as denying that AIDS is caused by a virus. It comes mainly from the lower echelons of society, and to my understanding it is a popular reaction to the fact that AIDS threat requires a dramatic change of the deeply embedded sexual morality. I would compare it to the anti-abortion movement in this country, which was a reaction of low class males fears of losing control over "their" women.
wojtek