The first deal for direct export of Russian oil to the United States is about to be completed. Yesterday the Greek tanker Astro Lupus brought 240,000 tons to Galveston. The shipment was sent to the United States by YUKOS and Exxon Mobil on June 12, Independence Day in Russia. The oil will be unloaded on July 4, Independence Day in the United States. YUKOS is analyzing the financial results of the deal now, but a source close to its management claims that a second tanker is already being loaded. It will depart for the United States in August.
YUKOS is exultant. Its executives claim that they are opening up an entirely new market for Russian oil, since the United States is the largest oil importer in the world. The company describes the new market as highly promising. YUKOS head Mikhail Khodorkovsky announced not so long ago that oil deliveries to America would be profitable even at the level of $19-21 a barrel even though he himself had mentioned $25 a barrel before that. Brent August futures at the London stock exchange cost $25.65 a barrel yesterday evening, and Russian Urals is usually $1.50 or so cheaper.
At the same time, experts are somewhat cautious with regard to future deliveries. Specialists consider that deliveries will be profitable only when a great deal of factors coincide. Mikhail Perfilov, an analyst with Petroleum Argus, says that YUKOS in the deal opted not to insure the risk that the price difference between WTI and Brent may be below the acceptable level. The difference grew during transportation and the deal may be profitable after all. "It doesn't mean, however, that it will always be like that," Perfilov warns. "It is possible to make some profits from some elements, but ongoing oil exports from Russia to America would not be profitable, since large tankers cannot access former Soviet ports (YUKOS was forced to use Greece as a way station; three smaller tankers brought the oil there and pumped it into the Astro Lupus).
As far as YUKOS is concerned, it has emphasized its position. The Druzhba-Adrija pipeline is opening soon. Sales will be easier if Khodorkovsky succeeds in persuading American customers that his company is a reliable supplier. This will be an important aspect to consider this autumn, because OPEC may opt to raise production, and oil shortages would be over.