Da Bear

pms laflame at aaahawk.com
Wed Jul 10 09:57:02 PDT 2002


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^IXIC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

(either cut and paste or go to max for years on chart)

I don't know nothin' 'bout no chart analysis, but........just from a lookin'-at perspective, this chart is way broke and if it was a stock it would be time to move out. Past time. Knowing what happened on Sept 11 I stare at those little dips in April and Sept and it's just an amazing coincidence. Timing. If you look back at '87 and '98 you can see the dips of those crisis events. '98 didn't violate the low of '87. And if this chart was gonna keep looking like the past decades, you can see that April would have been the dip to end all dips. The market should have at least meandered, but it kept going down. I think serious chart and technical analysts, who almost never get on CNBS and biz pages, were probably pretty sure by the summer of '01 where the market was going, but by the first week in Sept would become obvious to a whole new layer of market participants, unfortunately, not the general public, that the Naz was not acting as it had acted since it's inception. Sept 11 was awareness interuptive. Fundamental trumped technicals amid the flags. But the story is in the chart. I have to wonder how the financial press decides who to quote and who's telling the quoted what to say. And despite all the conspiracy de-bunkers, I can't help but wonder at the perfect timing of the Sept 11 tragedy at masking the obvious. Not when there are billions of dollars involved.



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