----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com>
Nathan Newman wrote:
>Stocks are going to find the bottom where that skepticism meets some
>more reasonable standard of stock valuation.
-That's optimistic. They could well overshoot the "reasonable" on the -downside, just as they did on the upside.
True-- although the basic dynamic remains that there is that demographic expansion and money looking for investments. Stocks may overshoot on the downside but if they stabilize for any period of time, I bet money relatively quickly inches back in and pushes it back to a more "reasonable" level.
Now- the real dangerous crisis (as someone posted from Stephen Roach) is the housing market-- if that starts to go down, all bets are off. Given how that would kill consumer spending, that could really mean Depression time.
-- Nathan Newman