Fwd: Public Opinion Watch by Ruy Teixeira: July 8-12 [POW}

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Mon Jul 22 14:24:55 PDT 2002


Due to technical difficulties the dissemination of the latest edition of Public Opinion Watch that covers the time period of July 8-12, 2002 was slightly delayed. This edition and past editions of Public Opinion Watch are available in PDF and HTML formats on The Century Foundation's website at: <http://www.tcf.org/Opinions.>

Public Opinion Watch is now available on the Tom Paine website, <http://www.tompaine.com.>

********************************************** Public Opinion Watch July 8-12, 2002

In this edition of Public Opinion Watch:

- Public Getting Downright Surly about Corporate Wrongdoing - But How Will It Play Politically?

Public Getting Downright Surly about Corporate Wrongdoing

CBS poll of 685 adults, released July 11, 2002 (conducted July 8-9, 2002)

Gallup poll of 1,013 adults for CNN/USA Today, released July 11, 2002 (conducted July 5-8, 2002)

As the astonishing wave of corporate scandals continues, the public's distaste for corporate misconduct deepens. The CBS poll, for example, shows just 16 percent of the public expressing a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in big business. This is the lowest level recorded since pollsters began asking this question in 1986.

More amazing still, 67 percent say that most corporate executives are not honest, compared to only 27 percent who say they are. That is not "some"; that is "most," which is quite an indictment. In addition, 79 percent believe questionable accounting practices are widespread, compared to a mere 16 percent who feel these are isolated instances limited to a few companies. Similar questions about CEOs of large companies and investment professionals also show lopsided majorities believing that wrongdoing is widespread, not confined to isolated instances. Finally, more than half (57 percent) endorse the notion that "committing white-collar crimes to make a dishonest profit for themselves and their companies" happens very often in American business, not just occasionally (39 percent) or hardly ever (2 percent).

Related to these feelings, the public is changing its views about the relationship between government and business. In an intriguing result from the Gallup poll, big business is increasingly seen as the biggest threat to the country in the future. Thirty-eight percent now believe this is the case, compared to 47 percent who believe that big government is the biggest threat. This might not seem so bad until one looks at the trend data and realizes this is highest "threat" reading for big business since pollsters started asking this question way back in 1965; it also is the smallest gap between big business and big government recorded in those thirty-seven years.

Similarly, since 1981 pollsters have been asking whether there is "too much, too little or about the right amount of government regulation of business and industry." In the Gallup poll, 33 percent said "too little", 32 percent said "too much," and 30 percent said the "right amount." That is the highest "too little" reading since the question was first asked. The CBS poll shows the same feelings about government regulation of business-in fact, in this instance a little stronger. Thirty-seven percent feel the federal government regulates business too little, 30 percent think too much, and 24 percent say the right amount. This is a turnaround from results of the same question in February, which showed 26 percent believing there was too little regulation and 35 percent saying too much.

Feelings are even stronger about federal regulation of businesses' accounting practices. Seventy-one percent believe the federal government should be doing more to regulate these practices, compared to just 7 percent (!) who think it should be doing less and 17 percent who feel it is doing enough.

~

But How Will It Play Politically?

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Public Opinion Strategies poll of 1,000 likely voters for National Public Radio (NPR), released July 9, 2002 (conducted June 18-24, 2002)

Charlie Cook, "One Way or Another, Heads Will Roll," National Journal, July 13, 2002

Kate Zernike, "Stocks' Slide Is Playing Havoc with Older Americans' Dreams," July 14, 2002

Will this growing combativeness on the public's part put wind in the Democrats' sails? As discussed in last week's Public Opinion Watch, so far the GOP has escaped serious damage from the public reaction to the scandals.

But that could be changing. In the NPR poll, 66 percent of voters say that "domestic issues such as taxes, education, health care and retirement" will be more important to their vote, compared to just 29 percent who say international issues will be more important. The poll also shows that the top three voting issues are education, the economy and jobs, and Social Security/Medicare. The latter two issues, of course, are greatly affected by the scandals. What prevents this combination of issues and scandal from sinking the GOP is the special consideration-almost deference-shown to President Bush. But those feelings are eroding. In the Gallup poll mentioned above, the public is now evenly split on whether Bush is interested in protecting the interests of ordinary Americans (47 percent) or of large corporations (46 percent). That is down from just a week ago, when a twelve-point majority believed Bush favored the interests of ordinary Americans. In addition, the CBS poll mentioned above indicates that 58 percent of the public now believes big business has too much influence over the Bush administration, compared to just 8 percent who believe it has too little and 22 percent who say it is the right amount.

So the bloom is off the rose. As Charlie Cook puts it in his article, there is now "a situation of great political risk for this president and his Republican party," accompanied by a growing feeling that the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Cook argues that Bush and his administration have to show they are serious about taking an ax to corporate wrongdoing, or it will be Republican heads that will roll on Election Day.

Maybe chopping off a few heads would help the GOP (Harvey Pitt, anyone?). But it is possible that the real determinant of the party's fate will be how many voters come to fear that their retirement dreams and general security and well-being are being seriously compromised by the scandal and its economic ramifications. The stories in the New York Times article suggest that many older voters are starting to feel that way. Much depends on how widespread these feelings are and how fast they grow.

We do not know the answers to these questions-yet. But Public Opinion Watch is starting to see signs that what seemed merely a point in the Democrats' favor last week may turn out to be considerably more. Stay tuned.

~

Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation.

Public Opinion Watch covers newly released polls, as well as key newspaper and magazine articles that make use of polling data. If you've ever wondered what to make of the blizzard of survey data covered in the newspapers--and whether the newspapers themselves know what they're talking about--you'll want to check out this feature on a regular basis. Each edition will combine noteworthy findings and trends from the latest polling data with analysis of the misinterpretations and misrepresentations to which polling data are so often subject.

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