Three Strikes

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

At 06:37 AM 7/26/2002 -0700, Kevin quoted:
>University of Alabama at Birmingham
>26-Jul-02
>
>
>Three Strikes Law Spikes Homicide Rate
>
>effects of the laws." They found that cities in states
>with three strikes laws experienced a 13 to 14 percent
>increase in homicide rates after implementing the
>laws. "Criminals perceive that they will get the same
>punishment for murder as they would for having a third
>strike," says UAB criminologist and study co-author
>John Sloan, Ph.D. "So they may try to kill victims or
>police officers to avoid detection." The study's
>authors say these findings are a prime example of
>unintended negative consequences derived directly from
>legislative policy.

This is a prime example of researchers drawing conclusions beyond the scope 
of their data.  To demonstrate what motivates criminals, one needs to 
collect data on their thought process (e.g. interviews).  All they 
seemingly have, however, is the "before" and "after" homicide rates (I 
wonder if they compared that increase to changes in regions that did not 
implement the said laws?) which can be explained by a myriad of alternative 
factors (e.g. changes in demographic composition or the economy).

wojtek