Debt Deflation

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Jul 26 11:53:44 PDT 2002


Jeff Downing wrote:


>I can't recall if you covered this in Wall Street or not,
>but I was wondering if history provides examples of
>corresponding Market and Real Estate bubbles and the timing
>of these events. More attention has been given lately to
>the American housing market and its febrile spike in
>valuation: following Fisher's logic, wouldn't one expect to
>soon see a glut of sellers looking to liquidate their
>biggest asset, especially if their nest eggs had recently
>been robbed?

I don't know the housing market that well. It does generally behave like other speculative markets, but prices are more obscure (there aren't really any standard price indexes around, and it's hard to compare a two-bedroom in the Silicon Valley to a four-bedroom in suburban Omaha to a co-op in Manhattan) and houses themselves are pretty illiquid. And people won't dump a house the way they'll dump a stock that's down 40%, because they need somewhere to live. So it's kinda similar but kinda different too.

Doug



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