When examined more closely, Russia's political stability turns out to be only a case of the public having grown weary of the "old" politicians. Clearly, there is a demand in our society for new ideas and new faces.
The people are apparently calm, sometimes even indifferent to what is happening in big-time politics. President Putin is the only exception: public opinion still takes an interest in what he's doing.
But is this calm and indifference a sign that the public - which, as the elections approach, is gradually turning into the electorate - is satisfied with what is happening in Russian politics? The latest study from the Complex Social Research Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences indicates that the state of public opinion is far removed from what is usually termed political stability. On the contrary: the public is extremely dissatisfied with most of today's political figures.
Firstly, the level of support for political parties currently in the Duma has declined. No less significant is the considerable increase, over the past two years, in the number of people who have no political preferences. Undoubtedly, this is partially linked to the fact that elections are still some way off, and the public has not yet been "stimulated" by election campaigns and the associated promotional efforts. However, almost half of respondents (45.4%) don't think any of the existing parties are worth voting for. Such indifference can't simply be put down to the "political vacation period". It is an established trend. In recent years, research has constantly shown a decline in the significance and authority of political parties as a social institution.
Over half of respondents believe that the nation needs a party which would declare as its priority social protection of the population. It should be noted that the Communist Party still exists - and obviously declares itself to be a protector of the people's interests. However, Russian voters seem to think otherwise.
About a fifth of respondents think that Russia needs a party of strong and independent people. The Union of Right Forces, which places itself in this category and is supported by about 5% of voters, is not taken into consideration. Similarly, there is demand for civil rights and nationalist parties, but the existing Yabloko and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, as well as recently formed People's Party of conservative Gennady Raikov, are unpopular.
All this permits the suggestion that Russian voters need not a new party system, but the appearance of new ideas and mainly, new generators of such ideas.
According to all latest polls, the only Russian politician who meets modern standards is Vladimir Putin.
This impression grows stronger if we see what those who vote for the leading parties think of their leaders. Only voters of the Communist Party think its leader Gennady Zyuganov is a better presidential candidate than Vladimir Putin. The voters of the rest of parties, including Yabloko (Grigory Yavlinsky) and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (Vladimir Zhirinovsky) think that Putin is as good a presidential candidate as the leaders of their own parties.
Hence, currently there is no real alternative to Putin. Some time ago, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov was mentioned in these terms. However, according to polls, the majority of voters are positive about him as prime minister, but do not consider him as a public politician or a presidential candidate.
If other political figures, such as Gennady Seleznev and Sergey Mironov, participate in the elections, they would probably add votes to Vladimir Putin's tally. Despite all attempts of Boris Nemtsov to promote a single presidential candidate from the right wing, the voters of the Union of Right Forces support Putin so actively that these plans are most unlikely to be a success. It is mostly due to the fact that the voters of the Union of Right Forces, as well as supporters of United Russia, are mostly satisfied with the present situation in Russia; particularly the economic situation, including living standards - the living standards of these groups are much higher than those of traditional left wing voters.
However, Putin is also able to win the left wing electorate over to his side. During the 1999 parliamentary elections, many supporters of the Communist Party were observed to be moving over to Unity, especially rural residents and the elderly. Currently this trend is even more obvious. In particular, supporters of left wing parties are far from being revolutionaries; on the contrary, they are people who would like the president to support the Communist Party, supposing that the regime has the real resources to protect their interests, unlike the Communist Party alone. Moreover, even steady supporters of the Communist Party support Putin for president as well.
A shortage of ideas and charismatic leaders at the top levels of Russian politics is prompting the Kremlin's political consultants to think of creating a two-party system: United Russia, as the majority of citizens support President Putin - and the Communist Party.
There are other options as well. For instance, political consultants are also considering a transition from having a pro- government party in the form of United Russia to a large pro-Putin coalition, which would include different and sometimes ideologically opposed movements.
As Central Election Commission chairman Alexander Veshnyakov explained recently, United Russia cannot monopolize President Putin - any party has the right to promote him as its presidential candidate at the next presidential elections. Moreover, some of then are highly likely to use this opportunity.
In short, the present picture for the so-called political elite is rather sad. The elite is represented by morally outdated political parties headed by morally outdated leaders, with the president hovering above all this. This situation suggests the following scenarios of development of events. Firstly, there is a clear demand for renewal of the political elite; ordinary Russians have grown heartily sick of it over the past decade; it has become a private club, not open to just anyone walking in off the street. This gives some hope that a "fresh assortment" may be found; more importantly, that the quality of the "political produce" available to Russian voters will be improved.
Secondly, the stage when all the attention and efforts of citizens were focused on basic survival has been passed - at least, this applies to most of Russian society. And this means that there are now some groups and social layers in Russia - primarily the "middle class" - which are not only capable of making rational political choices, but are themselves ready to participate in politics: that is, potential members of a revitalized political elite. There aren't many of them, and by no means all of them are favorably disposed toward the present situation in Russia or the present regime; however, they are capable of bringing some renewal and development into the political party system which has stagnated over the past ten years. (Translated by Arina Yevtikhova )