Russia assails Pakistan, India dismisses fears of use of nuclear

[Michael McIntyre]

This is reminiscent of Frances Fitzgerald's argument in Fire in the Lake that South Vietnam wasn't a U.S. client because, on a day-to-day basis, the RVN govt did things that pissed off the Embassy all the time.  Of course it's possible that if the ISI told the militants to stand down for a few weeks while the crisis passed, there might be some loon who refuses to obey.  But Indian radio intercepts indicate that ISI is giving precisely that order to the militants right now, and they wouldn't be giving it unless they expected the order to be followed.

MM


>>> todda39 at hotmail.com 06/03/02 16:53 PM >>>
Michael McIntyre said:


>No Pakistani leader since Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto has been able to stay in 
> >power without the support of Pakistani military intelligence (ISI).  >So, 
>Musharraf has
>just as much power over the militants as ISI will allow him to have.  
> >Since ISI is the historical godfather of Taliban and Al-Qaeda, the 
> >answer is "not much". ISI might well allow a tactical slowdown of 
> >activity, but there is almost no chance of a long-term change in >policy. 
>  So, the current crisis might abate, but only to recur.


>Michael McIntyre

Well, yes, but doesn't this beg the question of how much control the ISI 
has?  I'll grant they must have a fair amount of control at least (cf Chris 
Doss' forwarded article: "Pakistan blocks aid to 115 Islamic schools"), but 
could they simply yell, "Jump!" and have all the "terrorists" begging to 
know how high?  Seems there must be at least some cells, groups, or just 
individuals who won't obey for whatever reason.

Todd

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