Maybe I should leave Russia and joind DePaul's graduate studies program.
Chris Doss The Russia Journal --------------------------- Nezavisimaya Gazeta No. 109 June 5, 2002 [translation from RIA Novosti for personla use only] RUSSIAN EXPERTS ON INDIAN-PAKISTANI CONFLICT NG requested renowned political analysts to comment on the Indian-Pakistani conflict.
Vladimir Moskalenko, head of the Pakistan section of the Institute of Oriental Studies, the Russian Academy of Sciences The situation is very complex. However, I reject immediately the possibility of a nuclear strike because nuclear weapons are an instrument of containment. The Alma-Ata meeting shows Russia's active efforts and the desire of President Putin to contribute to the settlement of the conflict. Unfortunately, Vajpayee and Musharraf are not ready for a compromise so far while India is against any form of mediation. There are also quite alarming symptoms: Pakistan is withdrawing its troops from the Afghan direction and is bringing them to Kashmir. The Taliban movement and Al-Qaeda are very much interested in the increase of tension in Kashmir. They have long been taking efforts to make the West re-direct its main struggle against international terrorism from Afghanistan to another country. The internal situation in India and Pakistan remains very grave. Meanwhile, the simplest way to resolve the Kashmir problem is to recognise the control line dividing the Indian and the Pakistani parts of Kashmir as the state border. Given that the status quo is sealed legislatively, it will not be necessary to make concessions or give away any part of the territory to anyone.
Andrei Piontkovsky, head of the Centre for Strategic Studies I perceive the possibility of a nuclear conflict more like a hypothetical one. But if this occurs, the consequences will be disastrous, especially for Pakistan: this state will simply cease to exist. In actual fact, much depends today on whether India will venture to sacrifice at least ten million its citizens for the sake of the final and irrevocable victory over its eternal enemy. The destruction of Pakistan would lead to a number of unpredictable results for that region and the adjacent geo-political space. Pashtuns would be eager to create their own national state, which would inevitably intensify all the traditional inter-ethnic conflicts in neighbouring Afghanistan. Under this scenario, Pashtuns would inevitably begin to oust Tajiks from hypothetical Pashtunistan. This would have direct and adverse effects on Tajikistan, its external and internal political stability. Destabilisation would necessarily affect other countries of the region - Kirghizia and Uzbekistan.
Alexei Malashenko, member of the scientific council of the Carnegie Centre
The probability of an Indian-Pakistani nuclear conflict seems to be a purely hypothetical one for me. However, if we imagine that this is possible, it is important to understand who precisely will be able to use an atomic bomb. I don't believe that India would be the first to do that. If official Islamabad were the first, then, no matter how strange it may seem at first glance, the purely political consequences of this step would not be very significant for the CIS Central Asian states. There would be, no doubt, environmental consequences but the political effect would not be very strong for them. However, presuming that the bomb would be detonated by Islamic extremists who would in one way or another take hold of nuclear weapons, it is difficult even to predict the consequences of the growth of radicalism in Central Asia.
Yevgeny Kozhokin, director of the Institute of Strategic
Studies
One should not ignore the danger of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. The main thing today is to prevent the developments that would have disastrous consequences not only for that region. The UN Security Council permanent member states need to elaborate a single position and must take all efforts to prevent the escalation of the conflict. The G-8 group of the leading nations can play a big role in this process. Let me repeat that it is necessary to elaborate a single position and realise it in practice by joint efforts with the use of all possible levers of influence. A nuclear war would have the most grave consequences, in the first place, for Pakistan. Many-million human losses would be inevitable. Radioactive contamination would have long-term effects, including for the CIS states. Since full defeat awaits Pakistan under this scenario, this country would most likely disintegrate. This would be accompanied by unheard-of destabilisation to generate many-million refugee flows into Afghanistan and Iran. That is why, it is quite admissible to predict consequences for these states as well. At the same time, they directly adjoin some CIS states. This fact harbours the danger of a quick and actually uncontrolled domino effect: destabilisation would begin to spread to an increasingly larger number of state and regions.