Good news from this part of the world. It looks increasingly that the CIS is gradually reforming some kind of coherent political/economic unit in the "post-Soviet space." (This shouldn't be surprising; it's simple geography and resource distribution.)
PS. Even though the Ukrainian gov. has said it wants to join NATO, only 15% of Ukrainians are in favor. I think they're playing political games with Russia.
Chris Doss The Russia Journal ------------------ RUSSIA AND ITS NEIGHBORS
UKRAINIAN PUBLIC OPINION ON RUSSIA AND THE US
SOURCE. Ukrainians Drifting Away From U.S., Getting Cozier With Russia. Opinion Analysis M-27-02. Office of Research, Department of State, Washington, D.C. 20520, March 27, 2002. Analysis by Regina Faranda (tel. 202-619 5129; e-mail rfaranda at pd.state.gov).
The report analyzes the evolution of Ukrainian attitudes toward Russia and the US over the past decade, drawing on findings of surveys commissioned in Ukraine by the State Department Office of Research. (1)
Ukrainian perceptions of Russia have become much more positive since the mid-1990s. 85 percent of Ukrainians now have a generally favorable view of Russia; only 10 percent have a generally unfavorable view. The proportion of respondents expressing confidence in Russia's ability to deal responsibly with world problems has risen from around 30 percent in 1995-96 to 64 percent now. Over the same period, the proportion who see Russia as a threat to Ukraine's security has fallen from 21 percent to a mere 5 percent.
This shift in perceptions is reflected in Ukrainians' foreign policy stances. 60 percent of respondents now support some kind of confederal union with Russia and Belarus. (34 percent remain opposed.) About the same proportion support close security relations with Russia and the CIS. A large minority (39 percent with 51 percent opposed) want to go further and merge Ukraine and Russia into a single state.
The regional differentiation of Ukrainian attitudes, with people in Eastern Ukraine most favorably disposed toward Russia and people in Western Ukraine least favorably disposed, is still very clear. Nevertheless, the shift in attitudes has affected all regions alike. Thus 75 percent of respondents in Eastern and Southern Ukraine want a union with Russia, but even in Western Ukraine support for a union has increased from just 11 percent in 1995 to 31 percent now (with 62 percent still opposed). Western Ukraine is no longer quite the stronghold of Ukrainian nationalism that it used to be.
The analyst points to two factors associated with the pro-Russian shift in Ukrainian opinion:
-- The economic upturn in Russia makes close relations with Russia appear more advantageous. (2)
-- Ukrainians like Putin: the proportion of respondents viewing him favorably was 69 percent in 2000 and is now 79 percent.
While attitudes toward Russia have improved, attitudes toward the US have deteriorated. The proportion of respondents expressing confidence in the US' ability to deal responsibly with world problems has declined from 59 percent in early 1995 24 percent now. The proportion who see the US as a threat to Ukraine's security is now 10 percent -- double the proportion who still see Russia as a threat!
The analyst identifies the crucial factor underlying this shift as anxiety over the possible consequences for Ukraine of US military interventions in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. "The fear doesn't seem to be that the US will attack Ukraine, but that any stirring up of conflict in the world increases Ukraine's chances of being attacked by someone."
NOTES
(1) Two pieces in previous issues have been on related themes: Issue No. 4 item 9 on Russian policy toward Ukraine, and Issue No. 8 item 10 on public attitudes toward Europe in Ukraine and other East European countries.
(2) For analysis of the economic upturn in Russia since 1998, see RAS Issue No. 8 item 1.