MOSCOW, June 25 -- Two senior Russian government officials said today that more money was now flowing into Russia than out, suggesting that Russians were bringing some of their "flight capital" back home to spend or invest after years of stashing it overseas.
The finance minister, Aleksei Kudrin, and the governor of the central bank, Sergei Ignatiev, said that for the first time since such statistics had been
kept, Russia would have a surplus in its capital account in the second quarter of 2002, meaning a net flow of capital into the country.
"It is the new reality of Russia," Mr. Kudrin said today at an investors' conference in Moscow. "It means that there is confidence in the government's
policies. We must support this confidence with real results in the investment climate."
The announcement comes less than a week after President Vladimir V. Putin called on the Russian elite to bring its money back to Russia, and after a government official indicated that he was working on a plan to allow funds to be repatriated at low tax rates with no questions asked. Mr. Putin also warned Russian executives that it would be increasingly hard to hide money in offshore bank accounts as international rules are tightened.
Mr. Putin's remarks sent one Russian banker with close ties to the Kremlin, Sergei Pugachyov, scurrying to offer help in drafting a law to legalize repatriated capital.
But today, Mr. Kudrin dismissed the idea of a capital amnesty. Instead, he said, the government's efforts to make Russia more attractive for investment
are "the most important thing."
Analysts welcomed the emerging trend, whose exact extent will not be known until complete figures for the quarter are released in July.
"It is a reflection that people have more confidence in Russia, so there is less capital flight and more lending to Russians from abroad," said Peter Boone, head of research for Brunswick UBS Warburg, a Moscow-based investment
bank.
The comfort level of both Russian and foreign investors here does seem to have risen lately. Last week, the primary shareholders of Russia's second-largest oil company, Yukos Oil, set aside years of secrecy and detailed their holdings. Commercial lending is up, and more foreign companies are opening for business here.
Reasons for the trend include the political stability that came with Mr. Putin's presidency, a welcome change for investors after the rotating governments in the final years of Boris Yeltsin's tenure, and the four-year economic expansion that is still going strong here.
"Russia is a real market now," said Mattias Westman, a Moscow fund manager. "People want to hear about it and read about it. Two years ago it was an irrelevance that people couldn't be bothered with."
But as Russia's economy continues to draw investment, new problems arise. Capital inflows mean a stronger ruble, good for ordinary Russians who buy imported goods but trouble for exporters and for domestic producers who compete with imports.
"Russia has too much capital, which is bizarre," said Roland Nash, head of research at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow-based investment bank. "It is putting pressure on the exchange rate, which is undermining growth."
A fully functional banking system — something Russia does not yet have —
could help ease the problem. Mr. Ignatiev, who was appointed to run the central bank in March, said today that he was taking steps to strengthen the
banking system, including moving to international accounting standards and increasing supervision over private banks.