>While this is good news, take anything from Luntz with a grain of salt. He
>was reprimanded by the American Association for Public Opinion Research
>for not disclosing questions or techniques, and he pissed off the
>Republicans by feeding them very misleading polls on the Contract With
>America. (Basically he'd asked people if they were against waste in
>government; when they said yes, he interpreted this as support for the
>Contract. Newt & Co. bought it, much to their eventual regret.) And he did
>the famous more people believe in UFOs than Social Security poll - without
>disclosing that respondents wanted SS, they just doubted its longevity.
I would not pay 5 cents for most opinion polls. They are basically worthless because (i) they ask for opinions not behavior, (ii) they do so in terms constructed by the researcher not the respondent, which forces the respondent to think in the researcher's frame rather than his/her own, (iii) interviewing involves interaction between strangers, and that prompts respondents to give "public" responses i.e. those that are socially acceptable (esp. on controversial issues), another aspect of it is the so-called Hawthorne effect i.e. the R reacting to an interview to please the interviewer; and (iv) people's opinion can change quite dramatically in a very short period of time, e.g. in response to news, advertising campaigns, etc.
A better way to predict the draft dodging behavior is to examine the transaction cost of such an action. That includes: (i) resources that a person needs to muster to plan and take the evasive action (e.g. to investigate available options, buy an air ticket, pay his living expenses overseas, etc.) (ii) social cost of the evasive action (e.g. ostracism for "unpatriotic" behavior), as well as the "opportunity cost" i.e. what the person would loose in terms of personal career and income by evading the draft as well as what other alternatives he has to reduce his personal risk (i.e. serving in the Cost Guard or Air Force where risks are considerably lower). I would imagine, however, that draft evasion would be widely spread, especially among the middle class, simply because they have the resources to get away and do not face much ostracism for "unpatriotic" behavior (as rural folks do).
wojtek