|| -----Original Message-----
|| From: ChrisD(RJ)
|| But nevertheless I think that this person represents a new
|| generation. Over
|| the past three years he grew into a mature politician. He is
|| understood by
|| ordinary people. His rating remains very high. This is his
|| biggest resource
|| and this is why he succeeds. Before we didn't have a
|| federation, we had a
|| feudal regionalism. Now the constitution begins to work - the mechanisms
|| begin to work - everything is just beginning. Time is needed -
|| I think that
|| he'll have time.
Yes but time to do what? That is the burning question in my mind. I have this secret hope that Putin is a commie and that the ex-SU is _now_ ripe for communism. Seems to me the peoples of the ex-SU are the only ones who've known both worlds, and what's more are educated enough to form an opinion about them - viz that under capitalism a handful make a killing while the masses get demolished. Putin brought Russia back from turning into a mafia state, stopped capital flight, increased exports, reduced poverty, showed that Russia could be a strategic player again, and is pulling together the federation, I keep asking myself what this disciplined and sharp KGB officer is aiming at? He doesn't look like an oligarch or a cult of personality type. Even less is he the confiding, outspoken type, but nevertheless you must have an idea by now. So what do you think?
Hakki
---------------
That's a pretty impressive list of accomplishments you list up there. All the more so considering it's only been two years and the horrible condition things were it before he became pres. (BTW, contract murders in Petersburg, which is the Mafia capital of Russia, are down 50%, in large part because Putin basically made some calls and said, "If you keep on doing this, you're going to be the next one to get whacked.") Although, I should say, capital flight is still high, but it is more than compensated for by investment.
I don't want to state anything categorically, especially since it's so hard to get a fix on what's going on in Russian politics, where so much depends on back-room deals. But I will state my opinion for what it's worth. Maybe events in two years will show me to be completely out to lunch.
Putin is economically a moderate liberal and politically a strong-statist, the justification for the latter being that strong measures are necessary to implement a functioning liberal economy in the country. He is also a Russian nationalist (with a lower cause 'n'). Pretty much everybody in the Russian elite is convinced that a liberal economy is the way to go to revive Russia's greatness, not to mention the greatness of the state, which needs to get the tax coffers filled.
Putin's domestic political agenda has been mostly focussed on implementing the reforms believed to be necessary to accomplish this goal. To do this he has pushed for the subordination of most political decision-making bodies to the Kremlin, especially the regional governors (in Russia, this is known as "strengthening the vertical of power") and increasing the role of the special services (that is, the KGB in its current incarnation).
(In light of this, it appears at first sight paradoxical that Putin is introducing trial by jury for the first time in Russia's history. As of July 1, it will be illegal for prosecutors to detain people for more than 48 hours without a court order, and the power of judges is being scaled back. What this does is in effect limit the power of courts to lock people up on trumped-up charges. Putin's efforts, I think, are focussed more on reducing the power of rival power centers rather than increasing the power of the government over its citizens -- the Kremlin's muscle has so far been used on political competitors rather than ordinary Russians, which it seems to be actually encouraging in many respects, promoting small business, increasing the power and so on.)
Most of this political force has been brought to bear, happily enough, not on the general population Latin-American style, but on members of the elite Putin feels are working contrary to his purposes -- oligarchs who try to interfere with the political process, the regional governers who rule over their territories like feudal kings, sucking their economies dry, and so forth. Most mayors and so forth can only get elected now with tacit approval by the Kremlin. Putin is wildly popular among ordinary people for doing this. This may look undemocratic from your point of view, but from theirs, it means they have the approval of a central government that is trusted. For a regional governer to be appointed rather than elected, for example, to most Russians means that he or she will be accountable to a higher power and, more importantly, has not stolen his or her way into power using mob money and/or vote fraud -- which is what elections are in the regions. To be frank, Putin is quite possibly the most popular Russian leader in history.
I must in all honesty say that Putin is an order of magnitude better than I expected. Originally, I thought he would be nothing more than a puppet of the oligarchs -- who did after all put him in power -- Yeltsin 2, only scarier because of the KGB connections. I thought he was a bloodless, incompetent bureaucrat. I was quite surprised later, as I think most people were, not least Berezovsky.
This should be put in the context of the so-called "successor project." Yeltsin is out of power and Putin is in because, after the 1998 crisis, the people around Yeltsin were scared shitless of what would people would do to them if Yeltsin lost power, plus, I suspect, a large section of the elite, especially the special services, was worried Yeltsin was going to destroy the country completely. Yeltsin was relieved of his duties and Putin was basically appointed President on the strength of his response to the apartment bombings blamed on Chechnya (which may or may not have been done by Chechens) and then then Chechen attack on Dagestan. The very first thing Putin did after coming into power was declare that Yeltsin had immunity from prosecution. What you have, I think, is a "I won't fuck with politics, and you won't throw me in jail," gentlemen's agreement between the more moderate elements in the oligarchy -- who are at this point no longer stealing but rather protecting their property from being stolen, and are therefore interested in stability -- and the special services.
Chris Doss The Russia Journal