Deffeyes is an oil geologist, who did not make that mistake. He starts out by explaining how oil deposits are formed. Then shows how unlikely it will be to discover enough sites to keep up oil production.
I have seen one technical critique, but I was not convinced.
On Sat, Mar 23, 2002 at 07:35:32AM +0000, James Heartfield wrote:
>
> Miles Jackson <cqmv at pdx.edu> writes:
>
> 'I read Deffeyes' Hubbert's Peak a few months ago. I thought he made a
> pretty good case for the peak in world oil production occurring within
> the next decade, and decreasing inexorably after that. ...What's wrong
> with his analysis?'
>
> It would be hard to say without seeing it. However, previous warnings of
> oil depletion (as in, say, the Club of Rome reports) made the mistake of
> confusing the economic definition of oil reserves with the absolute
> definition. The former include only those that have been located, and
> can be profitably drilled. The Club of Rome's error was that they forgot
> that new reserves can be discovered, and that what's profitable to drill
> depends on a number of variables including rising prices due to supply
> shortages, and improved technologies.
>
> John Thornton <jthorn65 at mchsi.com> wrote
> 'Do you have it on good authority that none of the individuals listed do
> ANYTHING about climate change?'
>
> Well, I'm still waiting to hear on that score. Judging by the response,
> I'd say that my guess was good: nobody so far has come up with anything.
>
> 'Global warming is a term seldom used by people who understand the
> issues involved.'
>
> Sorry for not keeping up with the code.
> --
> James Heartfield
> Sustaining Architecture in the Anti-Machine Age is available at GBP19.99, plus
> GBP5.01 p&p from Publications, audacity.org, 8 College Close, Hackney, London,
> E9 6ER. Make cheques payable to 'Audacity Ltd'. www.audacity.org
-- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu