'A Pretty Poor Posture For a Superpower'

[Charles Brown]

'A Pretty Poor Posture For a Superpower'  
Los Angeles Times
March 13, 2002



By Robert S. Mcnamara and Thomas Graham Jr., Los Angeles Times

During the Cold War, peace was supported by the doctrine of "mutual
assured destruction," which simply meant that each side maintained second strike
capability, thereby deterring nuclear war. The Antiballistic Missile
Treaty and other treaties limiting the use of offensive nuclear forces were the
underpinning of this doctrine. They were also the basis for ending the
nuclear arms race.

Now, the Bush administration has moved to a new nuclear doctrine
described by one commentator as "unilateral assured destruction."

Should the recently leaked Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR, become
official policy, we can expect nuclear weapons to spread around the world. We
will live in a far more dangerous world, and the United States will be much
less secure.


According to reports describing the NPR, Russia is still a possible
target, but potentially by offensive forces rather than second-strike nuclear
forces. China also could be a target, with a "military confrontation
over the status of Taiwan" a possible rationale for a nuclear strike.

The NPR goes even further. It explicitly lists Libya, Syria, Iraq, Iran
and North Korea as potential targets for U.S. nuclear forces, putting aside
the ambiguity employed in previous reports. One thing--perhaps the only
thing--that these five states have in common, however, is that all are
nonnuclear parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

For 30 years, this treaty has kept nuclear weapons from spreading all
over the world, a development that would be devastating to U.S. security.

The problem is, however, that in 1978, to bolster the treaty, the United
States, Britain and the Soviet Union formally pledged never to use
nuclear weapons against nonnuclear countries that were parties to the treaty
except in the case of an attack in alliance with a nuclear weapon state. (No
exception was made for responding to chemical or biological attacks.)

This pledge, joined by France and China, was reiterated in 1995.

And in what could be the most reasonable request in the history of
international relations, in exchange for agreeing to never acquire
nuclear weapons, 182 nonnuclear nations asked that the five nuclear weapons
states promise never to attack them with such weapons. This was done in April
1995 in connection with a U.N. Security Council resolution.

But the Pentagon plan undermines the credibility of that pledge, which
underpins the nonproliferation treaty.

Further, the basic implication of the NPR--that the U.S. reserves the
right to target any nation with nuclear weapons whenever it chooses to do
so--is itself likely to increase the risk of the nuclear weapons proliferation.
If a country believes it's falling out of favor with Washington, what is
the first thing it is likely to do? A quote attributed to Indian Defense
Minister George Fernandes provides some insight: "Before one challenges
the United States, one must first acquire nuclear weapons."

Finally, the NPR also appears to set forth a 40-year plan for developing
and acquiring new nuclear weapons. It reportedly calls for new air, sea and
land launch platforms to be developed and deployed in 2020, 2030 and 2040,
and it calls for new low-yield and variable-yield warheads that probably would
require nuclear testing. Maintaining a permanent rationale for a robust
U.S. nuclear arsenal and a resumption of nuclear testing flies in the face of
vital U.S. commitments.

These matters are far too important for the administration to decide on
its own. There must be a full public debate, in Congress, on the future of
our nuclear deterrent and the nuclear nonproliferation regime.

Robert S. McNamara was secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1967. Thomas
Graham Jr., the special representative of the president for arms control and
disarmament during the Clinton administration, is president of the
Lawyers Alliance for World Security and author of "Disarmament Sketches," due in
May from the University of Washington Press.