I'd like to see the stats tracking the combined left vote (SP and everything leftward), the Gaullists, and LePen plus his new right-wing splinter over time. My guess is the movement towards LePen is not so large in that scheme of things. We should look with malice on the level LePen has attained over the decade, but that's not a recent development.
The more important problem IMO is the leakage of workers towards LePen -- the failure of the left broadly defined to hold them. I can't judge the salience of different analyses saying Jospin was too far to the center or not far enough, but the worker exodus has to be solved. How I couldn't say.
I assume there is no chance of LePen being elected right now. So the French will get Chirac instead of Jospin, and I don't doubt that Jospin would have been better. But the SP et al now have reason for self-examination, something typically lacking in parties in power that I would say does not make for progress.
Least of all is there some reason to recast the political system. That would stifle voices on the left that I would say are good medicine for the SP, as a general matter. Fragmentation can happen at any point, left right or center. It happened to bite the SP this time. Maybe when Chirac passes from the scene the Gaullists will fragment and the SP will have the initiative. There is still a parliament where the LePens are in a clear minority.
France is still the coolest country.
mbs
other farces will take place with different systems. resurrecting the socialist party means making very clear signs towards the antiglobalization movement that has led voters to reconsider their support to the governmental left. there is no lack of ideas/human ressources for this task. it is just a matter of how much time will it take the socialist party leaders (the base is already aware of the changes) to realize that it is the only valid and realistic option.
chances are, as i wrote in a mail a few days ago, the left will make a much better score in june. the voting system is different and a lot of people who voted for lepen the other day will very unlikely vote for the national front candidate, they will probably vote in a more realistic way. the left has clearly realized that a united front is necessary to win the elections and the shock of last week's results will probably encourage not a few candidates to change of campaign strategy. the right has failed to renew itself in the last 5 years and is unlikely to get a very good score, they still have old leaders, who are not leading much anymore, split factions etc. same for the extreme right. there was a report on nhk last night about the may 1st demo and lepen support. about 20,000 made it in the streets under the lepen banner, which is not a very big change from the past, and is defenitely not proportional to the 17% lepen got 10 days ago. meanwhile about 1,500,000 demonstrated!
against him all over france (between 500-900,000 in paris, about 900,000 elswhere). a huge number of young people have entered politics thanks to the political shock and those are unlikely going to support chirac in the next election.