The new threats posed by the changing international situation are likely to lead to changes in defence spending in 2003, with a bit more money going to space projects, the Strana.ru web site has reported. The bulk of the defence budget will go on modernizing military hardware. Spending on strategic nuclear arms is expected to decline further. The following are excerpts from the report by the Russian Strana.Ru web site on 8 May. Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
When discussing the draft budget for next year, the president and prime minister also discussed the 2003 state defence order. The head of state's attention to this question is understandable. Most world powers (first and foremost China and the United States) have increased defence expenditure this year and the trend will continue in 2003 as well. But Russia is spending relatively little on the development of arms and military hardware at the moment. How will the defence order change in 2003? Will Russia decide to increase its expenditure on the development and production of weapons? We will try to answer these questions.
Given all the positive aspects of rapprochement with the United States and the prospects for signing a new agreement with it on strategic offensive arms, a number of military leaders and politicians believe that ensuring Russia's own security and countering the threats connected with the deployment of weapons in space remain relevant for Russia, along with the issue of the development of new missile technologies, the unending attacks by terrorists, the war in Chechnya, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and so forth. All this requires the introduction of modern types of military hardware and armaments into the army, but Russia's economic problems prevent this from being carried out fully. ...
The development of new equipment costs billions of roubles, whereas the modernization of existing equipment costs millions of roubles. It is quite clear that the current defence minister prefers option two. And the defence minister definitely stands a far greater chance of defending his viewpoint than do his opponents.
Generals lobby for strategic nuclear arms
There is another set of contradictions connected with determining the defence order's parameters and they reflect the different approaches to assessing the role of strategic nuclear arms and the general purpose forces in ensuring the country's defence. These problems apply less to the heads of defence enterprises than to the generals. For example, when he was minister of defence, Igor Sergeyev, who is currently an adviser to the Russian Federation president, lobbied for the development of strategic nuclear arms, which took up 40 per cent of the defence order. This indicator now stands at 18 per cent. Although according to the state armaments programme through to 2010, strategic nuclear arms should account for around 16 per cent of the defence order.
Nevertheless, a number of former military leaders (for example Maj-Gen Vladimir Dvorkin, who was responsible for strategic nuclear planning and who was in Marshal [Igor] Sergeyev's immediate entourage) continues to defend the idea of more active development of strategic nuclear forces. They openly criticize Armed Forces Chief of General Staff Anatoliy Kvashnin for the fact that he intended to place only two Topol-M ICBMs on alert duty. The criticism was heeded and now it has been decided to place at least six Topol-M ICBMs on alert duty. But Dvorkin believes that even this figure is too low and that to support the technological chain and production-sharing links and to reduce the cost of production it is necessary to produce at least 10 missiles and place them on alert duty.
But the debates cannot be regarded as over, especially since, according to the predictions of many experts connected with the possible signing of the START agreement, the proportion of expenditure on the development of strategic nuclear arms will continue to decline.
Meanwhile, it is not ruled out that, when the state defence order is being drawn up, funding will be allocated to research into ways to counter tactical nuclear weapons (according to the Pentagon's new doctrine, it intends to use such weapons in localized wars) and into new types of anti-missile defence systems which the United States intends to produce in 2002-2003. Certain military leaders involved in the development of military hardware and armaments have been stating that this is necessary.
It is also possible that funding will be planned for nuclear tests. They will be necessary because there is every indication that Russia, like the United States, is going to plan the storage of nuclear warheads. To ensure the safety of this work, nuclear tests are needed. Igor Valynkin, head of the Russian Defence Ministry's 12th Main Directorate, once said that such tests will not contravene the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (this department is responsible for the storage and operation of nuclear munitions).
2002 figures
It is common knowledge that defence order figures are classified. However, certain figures which have been announced by the top military leadership can provide an approximate idea of its scale. For example, according to the figures given by Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov, in 2002, R68 million will be spent by the Russian Defence Ministry on scientific research, experimental design work, rearmament and the repair of arms and military hardware which, strictly speaking, form the main parameters of the defence order. This is around one fourth of the country's entire military budget and 63 per cent of the entire so-called general defence order in which other security ministries also take part (the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Border Service, the Ministry for Affairs of Civil Defence, Emergency Situations and so forth; a total of 20 participants). As we can see, this is a substantial figure, although it is clearly not enough for the proper renewal of the army and other troops with new types of arms and military hardware. Around 40 per cent of the 2002 defence order will be spent on scientific research and experimental design work (compared with only 10-12 per cent in 1996-1998). Around 11-12 per cent will go on repair work and around 30-40 per cent on modernization of arms and military hardware.
But only individual examples of new types of military hardware will be procured. Col-Gen Aleksey Moskovskiy, Russian Federation forces head of armaments and deputy defence minister, once talked about this in an exclusive interview with Strana.ru. Will these proportions be maintained in the defence order in 2003? As Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov has repeatedly stated, until 2006 the military budget's main funds will go on scientific research, experimental design work and the repair and modernization of arms and military hardware. And, as Aleksey Moskovskiy claims, the money will be spent in approximately the same proportions as this year.
A bit more money for space projects
However, in view of the change in the international situation and the forecast of the possible nature of the threats to our country, some changes may be made to the defence order. What changes are these? First, as the Russian Federation defence minister states, significant funds will be allocated to the development of military space [projects]. In 2002, 12 per cent of the defence order will be spent on this. The proportion of spending on the development of spacecraft in 2003 is planned to be slightly higher, according to Col-Gen Aleksey Moskovskiy's figures. Whereas this year the plan is to produce eight spacecraft and four missile delivery vehicles, in 2003 the plan is to produce 11 spacecraft and eight missile delivery vehicles. Second, the main funds will be spent on modernizing the general purpose forces' arms and military hardware. Sergey Ivanov and Anatoliy Kvashnin defend this position. In their opinion, modernization will require a smaller outlay and will have a commercial effect in the foreseeable future, because the modernized hardware of the general purpose forces can be sold abroad. And the Defence Ministry has now put a proposal to the government to transfer part of the funds from military-technical contracts with foreign countries to the military department's account.
What does modernization mean first and foremost? According to Aleksey Moskovskiy, this will affect the ground forces helicopter fleet (Mi-8s and Mi-24s), the Air Force's Su-27s, Su-25s, Su-24s and MiG-29s and also strategic aviation aircraft (Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers). In addition, work will begin on the modernization of armoured vehicles (T-72 and T-80 tanks and BMP-1 and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles). New intelligence- gathering and communications systems will be produced and procured. It is not ruled out that the country's leadership will decide to increase next year's military budget as a proportion of GDP (currently it stands at 2.6 per cent of GDP). After all, higher social expenditure (on increasing the pay and allowances of servicemen) and the elimination of debts to enterprises in the military-industrial complex (around R8 billion) objectively means an additional outlay.