New York Times October 29, 2002
The Greatest Threat
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
T he scariest place in the world right now is not Iraq, but rather the
Korean peninsula.
We're being blackmailed by a nuclear power, and so President Bush is
in an exceptionally difficult situation one that he has handled very
ably so far. But the administration's game plan to isolate North Korea
is, as our allies are desperately trying to tell us, potentially
catastrophic.
President Bush wants to squeeze North Korea into abandoning the
uranium enrichment program to which it recently confessed. We're
almost certain to cut off fuel oil shipments to North Korea.
Unfortunately, the moment we cut off oil shipments and apply economic
pressure, North Korea may kick out international inspectors at its
nuclear plant in Yongbyon. Then it may threaten to "uncan" the
plutonium rods there, preparatory to using them to make nuclear bombs.
North Korea has enough plutonium in Yongbyon to rapidly make at least
five nuclear weapons, possibly more. That's its leverage: threatening
to turn Yongbyon into a nuclear assembly line, which in turn might
ultimately lead Japan and South Korea to go nuclear as well.
So play the scenario out. We cut off fuel oil and introduce sanctions.
Then North Korea revives Yongbyon and threatens to uncan the
plutonium. From there, it's easy to imagine the U.S. bombing Yongbyon
(both the first Bush and the Clinton administrations had contingency
plans to do just that), after which North Korea lashes out with
artillery at Seoul.
<snip>
So what should we do?
Donald Gregg, a former ambassador to Seoul who is president of the
Korea Society, says imposing sanctions on North Korea "would be
crazy." Likewise, a military strike is not feasible, given that it
would probably trigger a new Korean war.
On the other hand, how can we accept a North Korea with a large
nuclear arsenal? How can we continue to ship fuel oil to the North as
if nothing had happened?
That leaves only one alternative, holding our nose and negotiating a
deal with North Korea (without ever calling it negotiating, and
possibly using proxies like China). The North would give up its nukes
and missiles, all sides would agree to end the hostilities of the
Korean War (there never was a peace treaty), and Western countries
would normalize relations with the North.
"The way to distinguish the hawks from the doves in this
administration is the speed with which a person realizes you have to
talk to the North," explains a longtime player. "The doves are already
there. The hawks are struggling with, and resisting, the notion."
In the coming months, the most delicate problem in international
relations will be how to negotiate an end to this crisis. If all sides
play their cards wisely, we could not only defuse the confrontation,
but also launch North Korea on a path like the one China pursued away
from Stalinism.
North Korea is the most totalitarian country in the world, and
possibly the most dangerous adversary we face. But that's precisely
the reason we need to engage it.
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