Kristoff on Yongbon

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Mon Nov 4 03:54:54 PST 2002


New York Times October 29, 2002

The Greatest Threat

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

T he scariest place in the world right now is not Iraq, but rather the

Korean peninsula.

We're being blackmailed by a nuclear power, and so President Bush is

in an exceptionally difficult situation one that he has handled very

ably so far. But the administration's game plan to isolate North Korea

is, as our allies are desperately trying to tell us, potentially

catastrophic.

President Bush wants to squeeze North Korea into abandoning the

uranium enrichment program to which it recently confessed. We're

almost certain to cut off fuel oil shipments to North Korea.

Unfortunately, the moment we cut off oil shipments and apply economic

pressure, North Korea may kick out international inspectors at its

nuclear plant in Yongbyon. Then it may threaten to "uncan" the

plutonium rods there, preparatory to using them to make nuclear bombs.

North Korea has enough plutonium in Yongbyon to rapidly make at least

five nuclear weapons, possibly more. That's its leverage: threatening

to turn Yongbyon into a nuclear assembly line, which in turn might

ultimately lead Japan and South Korea to go nuclear as well.

So play the scenario out. We cut off fuel oil and introduce sanctions.

Then North Korea revives Yongbyon and threatens to uncan the

plutonium. From there, it's easy to imagine the U.S. bombing Yongbyon

(both the first Bush and the Clinton administrations had contingency

plans to do just that), after which North Korea lashes out with

artillery at Seoul.

<snip>

So what should we do?

Donald Gregg, a former ambassador to Seoul who is president of the

Korea Society, says imposing sanctions on North Korea "would be

crazy." Likewise, a military strike is not feasible, given that it

would probably trigger a new Korean war.

On the other hand, how can we accept a North Korea with a large

nuclear arsenal? How can we continue to ship fuel oil to the North as

if nothing had happened?

That leaves only one alternative, holding our nose and negotiating a

deal with North Korea (without ever calling it negotiating, and

possibly using proxies like China). The North would give up its nukes

and missiles, all sides would agree to end the hostilities of the

Korean War (there never was a peace treaty), and Western countries

would normalize relations with the North.

"The way to distinguish the hawks from the doves in this

administration is the speed with which a person realizes you have to

talk to the North," explains a longtime player. "The doves are already

there. The hawks are struggling with, and resisting, the notion."

In the coming months, the most delicate problem in international

relations will be how to negotiate an end to this crisis. If all sides

play their cards wisely, we could not only defuse the confrontation,

but also launch North Korea on a path like the one China pursued away

from Stalinism.

North Korea is the most totalitarian country in the world, and

possibly the most dangerous adversary we face. But that's precisely

the reason we need to engage it.

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