LONDON (Dow Jones)--The former Soviet Union's 2002 crude oil production is expected to grow a hefty 800,000 barrels a day from 2001, the biggest rise ever in post-Soviet times, a senior International Energy Agency oil analyst said Tuesday.
The IEA's chief oil supply analyst, Michael Wittner, told Dow Jones Newswires Russia would account for almost 80% of the rise in FSU crude oil output, which includes natural gas liquids.
"These are very robust growth rates and in terms of barrels, there is more growth in Russia than anywhere else in the world and it accounts for the lion's share of non-OPEC growth," Wittner said referring to the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Russia, which has been exporting more than half of its 7.65 million b/d output this year, has taken valuable market share from quota-bound OPEC producers. Russia is also the second largest crude oil producer after OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia.
The burgeoning trend in Russia's oil output is set to continue, said Wittner.
Next year oil production from Russia, Kazakhstan and to a lesser extent Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, is expected to grow by 670,000 b/d to 10.03 million b/d - the second biggest increase since Soviet times.
If growth continues at this rate, then FSU oil production could surpass peak
Soviet production levels in the 1980s of 12 million b/d by 2010. The IEA forecasts FSU output at 13.1 million b/d by 2010, with Russia contributing 9.2 million b/d.
"Russian oil production is expected to continue to grow steadily each year through 2010 at rates of around 200,000 b/d," Wittner said.
However, strong production growth will depend on investment in new fields and boosting export capacity, he added.
"Russian oil companies' spending on mature fields vastly outweighs investment in new fields and that's going to be a very important issue mid-decade because the pace of growth we've seen the last two years is not sustainable without that," he said.