Did Aslan Maskhadov Know? Ralph Davis and Robert Bruce Ware Ralph Davis is a freelance writer specializing in Eurasian security issues. Robert Bruce Ware is an associate professor at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville. Date revised: 15-Nov-2002
Who was behind the Nord-Ost hostage drama in Moscow last month? Chechen commander Shamil Basayev has claimed responsibility, but Russian officials say that he did so to shield Chechnya's former president, Aslan Maskhadov. Maskhadov has denied any involvement. At stake may be the credibility of the Chechen cause and the possibility of a negotiated settlement for the conflict. Both may depend on whether Maskhadov is part of the problem or part of the solution.
Basayev established his reputation as a hostage-taker in June 1995, when he led an attack on the Russian town of Budenovsk and held hundreds of civilians in a maternity hospital before fleeing with dozens of them to southern Chechnya. After the first war Basayev opposed Maskhadov in Chechnya's presidential election, then served as his prime minister in 1997. The two leaders were at odds as often as not, and Maskhadov evidently was unable to prevent Basayev's incursions into Dagestan in 1999, which precipitated the present conflict in Chechnya. Yet while Maskhadov was unable to control radical Islamist warlords such as Basayev, Arbi Barayev, and Ibn ul Khattab, he was widely regarded as a moderate secularist official, who embodied Chechnya's best hope for a stable, independent future. After the start of the second war he was viewed by many in the West as Chechnya's legitimate leader, someone with whom Moscow might yet negotiate a workable peace.
But there is growing evidence of Maskhadov's radicalization. At a July 4th conference chaired by Maskhadov and Basayev, Maskhadov presented a new formation of the Chechen wartime government. Basayev was appointed head of the Military Committee of the Majlis ul-Shura of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. Yet, while assigning military responsibilities to Basayev, Maskhadov retained his position as commander-in-chief of all Ichkerian forces. He foresaw that the new structure would establish centralized command over Chechen military operations that previously took the form of isolated guerilla actions. Maskhadov ordered all commanders to increase the scale and tempo of operations within their districts, whether inside Chechnya or outside. Presenting the war as part of the Great Holy Jihad, Maskhadov concluded with assurances that freedom would return to Chechnya under Islamic law.[1] At the same meeting, the Ichkerian constitution was amended to bring it into conformity with the laws of Shari'ah.[2]
In an interview with Kavkaz-Tsentr on Aug 14, Basayev reiterated that all combat actions have become more coordinated due to the reorganization of the Majlis ul-Shura: " Even groups of mojahedin which were unknown earlier and acted independently, are trying to establish permanent contact with us and coordinate their actions in line with the common decision."[3]
At an extraordinary session of the Majlis ul-Shura held at the western front during August, Maskhadov stated that all mojahedin were now under the provisions of the nizam (law), which are based upon the Koran and the traditions of the Prophet Muhammad, i.e., Shari'ah law. Furthermore, Maskhadov stated that combat missions have been established which would soon force Russia from Chechen territory. "I hope," said Maskhadov, "that we will be able to change the situation by the end of this year and force the enemy to leave our lands. I am sure we will build our state - the Islamic state of Chechnya, God willing. Allah's law will prevail in our state. We will have no individual groups or disagreements. There will be a single nizam -- nizam of Allah."[4]
A militant video released after the downing of a Russian military helicopter on 19 August showed Maskhadov sporting the green epaulets of Islamist leaders while sitting in front of a banner saying "Allahu Akbar". On October 14, the regional headquarters of the North Caucasus claimed to have intercepted radio communications from Maskhadov, wherein he called for intensification of terrorist activities and sabotage in Russian territory.[5]
More importantly, Maskhadov was repeatedly implicated in the hostage crisis during a series of interviews and conversations with its two principal perpetrators, Movsar Baraev and his aid, Abu Said. Since Maskhadov's involvement has become a matter of controversy, it is worth examining these interviews.[6]
* On October 25, an NTV correspondent interviewed Barayev. The clip was aired the next day:
[Correspondent Sergey Dedukh] "The [hostage-takers'] group consists of 35 people, 15 of whom are women. Translated from Arabic, the name of the group means Islamic kamikaze fighters. Movsar denies suggestions that the Nord-Ost attack was revenge for the murder of his relative [Arbi Barayev].
Barayev Jr says the operation was not planned abroad. It was sanctioned by Shamil Basayev and the president of Ichkeria, Maskhadov, was in the know. The terrorists' only and final goal is the end of the military operation in Chechnya and the withdrawal of [Russian] federal troops.
[Movsar Barayev] "Our group is called [gives an Arabic name] Brigade, which means Islamic kamikaze fighters. Our goal - which we have declared more than once - is to stop the war and get the troops out [of Chechnya]
[Correspondent] "What if you receive a proposal, for example, that a Russian official enters into talks with Maskhadov or with somebody else?
[Barayev] "We are acting on orders from the supreme military emir. Our supreme military emir there is Shamil Basayev. You all know him very well. And Maskhadov is our president [words indistinct] although we have often heard that there is nobody under his command and nobody listens to him. All this is - I don't know how to say it in your language - it is a lie and slander. We are very much under his command and we very much listen to his opinion.
* On October 26, Zerkalo, an Azeri newspaper, interviewed Barayev's aid, Abu Said.
[Correspondent] Tell us, please, was Maskhadov or any other commander aware of your plans?
[Abu Said] Of course. This is a specifically prepared plan. And this is the best plan from the point of tactics. We prepared it during the entire summer. We came here on God's will and we will achieve our purpose, Inshallah.
[Correspondent] Have you an opportunity now to contact Maskhadov or [Chechen field commander] Shamil Basayev?
[Abu Said] Yes, of course.
[Correspondent] Do they know about events there at the current moment?
[Abu Said] They know, they know everything. They telephone and learn about the situation. We have reported everything to them.
[Correspondent] There is information that the Maskhadov headquarters has prepared the mechanism for transferring military operations to Russian territory if the talks on the settlement of the conflict do not start till spring. Is this [operation] part of this mechanism?
[Abu Said] Yes, this is only one part. We have not yet started our actions. And if this is only one part, there are major plans for the future. If they do not fulfil our conditions, certain moves will be made.
[Correspondent] When this operation was worked out, was Commander-in-Chief Aslan Maskhadov present there, was he informed?
[Abu Said] Yes, this plan was worked out jointly. Yes, he knew. But the rank and file mojahedin were not aware of where we were going...
* On November 1, Gazeta.Ru published coverage of a press conference chaired by Kremlin spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky. Yastrzhembsky played excerpts from a taped conversation between Movsar Barayev and Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, Maskhadov's emissary in the Middle Ease, wherein Maskhadov was described as authorizing the mission. Following is the transcript of that conversation:
"Is Aslan aware of this operation?'' inquires Barayev's interlocutor identified as Yandarbiyev. Barayev answered that ''Shamil'', meaning Basayev, was present during preparations for the hostage taking.
''When this operation was being prepared, Aslan (Maskhadov) and [top Chechen rebel commander] Shamil (Basayev) were present, but Shamil was fulfilling Aslan's instructions,'' Barayev said. He added that he was executing orders from his chief Basayev, but that the latter was subordinate to Maskhadov.
''Shamil has nothing of his own. Shamil was carrying out instructions from Aslan. But this operation was top secret. Only with Shamil and his people.''
Evidence of Maskhadov's complicity in the Nord-Ost hostage crisis is provided by the taped conversation between Barayev and Yandarbiyev, the NTV interview with Barayev, and the Zerkalo interview with Abu Said. Together they suggest that Maskhadov authorized the mission and left it to Basayev to work out tactical details.
Since its tragic conclusion last month the incident has served to marginalize Maskhadov. The Los Angeles Times reported in their Oct 31st issue that a senior US diplomat has described Maskhadov as "damaged goods", having "forfeited any legitimacy he had...he's either unwilling to stand up to terrorists or incapable of it."[7]
The hostage takers repeatedly said that Maskhadov had authorized their actions, and Maskhadov's centralization of the Chechen command structure suggests that this should have been the case. That would make him part of the problem. Alternatively, if Maskhadov had no advanced knowledge of the Moscow operation, and if he cannot control the Barayev's and the Basayev's of Chechnya, then how could he be part of a solution? Moreover, if Maskhadov was not complicit in the hostage crisis then why did he fail to condemn it while it was in progress?
In conclusion, Maskhadov's presidency has been a political failure that revealed his inability to lead Chechnya toward a political solution. Peace and stability in the Caucasus require that the people of Chechnya must choose another leader, whether it is Kadyrov or some other person.
NOTES [1] Transcript as published by Kavkaz Tsentr located at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RMSMC/message/1298 [2] The text of the amendments as published by Kavkaz-Tsentr can be viewed at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RMSMC/message/1441 [3] "Chechens launching coordinated operations against Russians, rebel commander" Source: Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency web site in Russian 17 Aug 02 [4] url: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RMSMC/message/1387 [5] "Chechen outlawed leader's voice intercepted by federal forces - spokesman" Source: Interfax-AVN military news agency web site, Moscow, in English 1112 gmt 14 Oct 02 [6] The two interviews and the Gazeta.Ru coverage are available at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RMSMC/message/1535 [7] "U.S. Rejects Chechen Separatist Chief" Source: Los Angeles Times, October 30 2002