Ekspert November 11, 2002 FIRST WE NEED TO WIN It is possible to resolve the Chechnya problem through force Author: Iskander Khisamov [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] IT WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE TO TALK ABOUT A REFERENDUM, A CONSTITUTION, AND ELECTIONS IN CHECHNYA AFTER THE MAIN CENTERS OF ARMED RESISTANCE AND TERRORISM THERE HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED. FORTUNATELY, CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES AROUND THE WORLD HAVE MADE IT EASIER FOR RUSSIA TO TAKE RESOLUTE ACTION IN CHECHNYA.
"The Chechnya problem cannot be resolved through force alone." These words are so often seen in media comments that they have lost all meaning. Firstly, the statement appears to imply that until now, only force has been used to resolve the problem; but this isn't true - a great deal more is being done there besides clean-ups and special operations. Secondly, everyone has their own interpretation as to what a solution to this problems entails: ranging from full independence to wholesale deportation, or even both at once. Those favoring the latter option don't mean deporting everyone out of Chechnya, but deporting all the Chechens now elsewhere in Russia back to Chechnya. The only outcome no one seriously expects is that Chechnya could become an ordinary autonomous republic in the Russian Federation. But if we have no consensus on the basic issue - what "solving the problem" means - then how can we assess methods of solving it?
At one point in history, the problem of Germany was resolved through force; now everything is fine there. More recently, the same methods were used to solve the problem of Afghanistan, and the problem of Yugoslavia. Preparations are now underway to resolve the problem of Iraq. On the whole, throughout human history it has been fairly rare for problems to be resolved other than from a position of strength and methods of suppression. As a rule, peace talks start when neither side has any chance of a conclusive victory, nor any will to continue fighting; when the price of victory becomes unsustainable.
But Russia is in a different situation at present. Firstly, the Russian political elite and the citizenry have understood the danger inherent in Chechen-Islamist extremism. It has also been proved that granting Chechnya independence only serves to increase the danger. Secondly, it has become clear that this enemy can be defeated. The defeats suffered due to our incompetence during the first war in Chechnya and our inability to fight an anti-partisan war led many to the false conclusion that our opponents were all Rambo-figures - fearless, merciless, indestructible and uncatchable - and backed up by the even more mysterious and horrifying Al Qaeda, headed by the nightmarish Osama bin Laden. This image remained intact even when people saw footage of a quiet, cowed Salman Raduyev in detention at the prosecutor's office. This image was only shattered on October 26, when the theater in Moscow was stormed.
It turned out that all those Chechen militants and suicide terrorists were simply amateurs. They had the numbers to defend that theater for many hours - but Russian professional commandos dealt with them in a matter of minutes. The militants didn't manage to kill a single commando; the women suicide bombers didn't manage to set off a single bomb. And these people were the cream of the Chechen terrorist army, hand-picked for the job. Yes, that army does well enough when it comes to shooting at helicopters, planting landmines, mounting sieges and taking hostages - but only when they are opposed by even greater amateurs. They can defeat an incapacitated state with a run-down army: the kind of state Russia was in 1995-96; but now our state and our army have changed somewhat.
What's more, under these new circumstances - now that the United States has also set about opposing terrorism - it has become possible to cut off the enemy from material assistance coming in from the East and moral support from the West. This won't happen soon, but the trend is there. Denmark is unlikely to extradite Akhmed Zakaev to Russia; but the very fact that he has been arrested there says a great deal. Chechen missions have been shut down in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and some other countries; in the Baltic States and Ukraine, streets once renamed in honor of Djokhar Dudayev will soon have their old names restored. Even the Arab emirate of Qatar, acting on its own initiative, has started talking of the possibility of deporting former Chechen commander Zelimkhan Yandarbiev to Russia. The United States itself is preparing to include the Chechen guerrilla army on the blacklist of terrorist organizations - and then even Denmark will have no other option but to hand them over.
Undoubtedly, we will not be able to live a completely calm life until all the "swamps of terrorism" around the world have been drained; and doing so will take many years. However, it is possible to use force to pacify Chechnya, in particular - to eliminate the main centers of violence, and fairly rapidly, at that. Only then - once the enemy has surrendered - will it make sense to talk of a referendum, a constitution, elections, and other matters of which people are now speaking so often and so prematurely. (Translated by Kirill Frolov)