-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de ChrisD(RJ) Enviada em: sábado, 23 de novembro de 2002 09:31 Para: 'lbo-talk at lists.panix.com' Assunto: RE: Russia and Iraq
Date: Sat, 23 Nov 2002 08:13:54 -0200 From: "Alexandre Fenelon" <afenelon at zaz.com.br> Subject: Russia and Iraq
Any comments, Chris Doss, those guys are predicting Russian collapse since 1999, and theyÈ been systematically wrong, but now....
---- I make a few comments below interspersed with the text. I am certainly no expert on the subject though.
A lot depends on the extent to which high oil prices are really what's girding Russian economic growth and stability, which actually started while oil prices were still low. (They are, though, along with gas, what underpin the federal budget.) As I mentioned in a previous post, my current theory is that it's to a large extent middle-class consumption of domestic products. The middle class is somewhere between 10-30 percent of the population, depending on how you count. The Russian middle class does not pay rent; it does not pay more than a pittance for utlities, if that (nothing happens to you if you don't pay, really); it does not pay taxes, usually; it often does not pay for its phone bills; it does not put money into banks. After necessities, its money goes straight into cheap Russian-made consumer goods. I think the importance of oil is somewhat overrated at this point.
-But, if oil prices collapse, there will be a dramatic worsening in -macroenomic variables, the trade balance will worsen analso tax -revenues, so this will threaten stability and decrease the amount -of money disposable for comsumption. And from what I remember, the -years of Russian recovery (1999) was also the year inwhen oil prices -started to recover (of course, devaluation of ruble itself improved -trade balance and reactivated local industry, since Russian consumer -couldn´t afford imported goods). My point is that Russian is really -threatened by a decrease in oil prices, so her current strategy could -be somewhat suicidal, on the other hand, Russian doesn´t have a way -to avoid a war, unless he provides Iraq with nuclear weapons, which -could be even more suicidal. Really a dangerous situation. D -Do you have data on the relative weight of oil in Russian exports?
Alexandre Fenelon