WAR WITH IRAQ: A HUMAN CATASTROPHE
A distinguished international medical organization has just published a devastating account of the human catastrophe and material damage that may be caused by a U.S. invasion of Iraq, predicting up to a quarter-million casualties in the first three months. Under certain conditions, deaths could reach the millions.
The 16-page report, "Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Costs of War on Iraq" was prepared by Medact, the British affiliate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. The U.S. affiliate is the Washington-based Physicians for Social Responsibility, which contributed to the report. IPPNW was awarded the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize for its "considerable service to mankind by spreading authoritative information and by creating an awareness of the catastrophic consequences of atomic warfare."
According to Bob Schaeffer, a U.S. spokesperson for the international organization, "We're saying that there'll be a very large short-term impact and an even more profound longer-term impact. The report uses the word 'human catastrophe' even if it does not escalate to the level of poison gas, civil war or nuclear weapons."
IPPNW recently urged London -- Washington's chief ally in the impending invasion -- to reject going to war. The group declared that "It is our belief that war against Iraq would destabilize the Middle East, strengthen the growing polarity between the West and Islamic nations, stimulate the further growth of terrorist elements, and risk future retaliation against innocent civilians in the United Kingdom and other countries that support such an action."
"Collateral Damage," released Nov. 12, makes the following observations:
THE CASUALTIES • Possible deaths on all sides during a "conventional" conflict and the following three months range from 48,000-261,000. • If civil war breaks out within Iraq and nuclear attacks are launched, the range is 375,000 to 3,900,000. [Editor: the Bush administration has already arrogated to itself -- without criticism from the "opposition" Democratic Party -- the right to first-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries.] • Deaths from other indirect and longer-term adverse health effects of the war in Iraq and beyond could total an additional 200,000.
THE WEAPONS • War, sanctions and UN weapons inspections have reversed and retarded but probably not eliminated Iraq’s chemical, biological and long-range missile capacities [Editor: such "capacities" are extremely limited, according to former chief UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter]. • The U.S. has developed and stockpiled many new weapons of all kinds, such as earth-penetrating nuclear missiles known as "bunker busters."
THE ENVIRONMENT • Widespread damage to the environment of Iraq and possibly neighboring countries. • Oil wells fired, creating oil spills and toxic smoke. • Troop movements and landmines destroy fragile desert ecology. • Bombardment destroys cities and topsoil. • Chemical, biological and possibly radiological pollution of land, sea, rivers, atmosphere.
GLOBAL IMPACT • Refugees escaping the conflict die in large numbers and put strain on neighboring countries; emergency relief costs billions. • Destabilization of other Middle Eastern countries including domestic unrest, repression. • Likely increase in acts of terrorism. • Possible U.S. and world recession, with greatest impact felt by poorer countries – oil prices up, trade down, markets unpredictable. • The cascade effect: from the effect on an individual combatant to the effect an injury on one combatant has on other combatants, to their families, to their community, to society in general and then to the state and internationally.
A COUNTRY IN RUINS • Iraq’s infrastructure, already seriously damaged by the earlier war, will suffer enormous damage in initial air attacks and subsequent urban conflict. • The destruction of roads, railways, homes, hospitals, factories and sewage plants will create conditions in which the environment is degraded and disease flourishes. • Shortages of water, food, and energy resources lead to epidemic diseases that may result in more deaths than those caused directly by the conflict.
HEALTH OF IRAQIS • Humanitarian catastrophe engulfs already weakened and unhealthy Iraqi civilians – refugees, displaced persons, war-wounded, vulnerable groups especially young children. • People suffering from the immediate impact of war are more susceptible to further health hazards and less able to mobilize their own resources for survival and reconstruction. • Physical health effects include disability, infectious diseases, stillbirths, underweight new-borns, diseases of malnutrition, possibly more cancers. • Mental health effects include post-traumatic stress disorder, long-term psychiatric illness, behavioral disturbance. • Health services, already running well below capacity, cannot cope with immediate demands or offer longer-term rehabilitation or preventive health care.
FINANCIAL BURDENS • All sides will pay a heavy financial cost, including arms spending, cost of subsequent occupation of Iraq, relief and reconstruction, possibly exceeding $150-200 billion. • The U.S. is likely to spend $50-200 billion on the war and $5-20 billion annually on the occupation. • Total economic collapse in Iraq.