Financial Times; Oct 04, 2002
Rival factions seek common ground
By Guy Dinmore in Arbil, Iraq, and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran
For the first time in eight years, Iraq's rival Kurdish factions will today hold a joint session of parliament as they search for a united strategy ahead of an expected US-led military overthrow of Saddam Hussein's government in Baghdad.
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Although the main Kurdish factions have bent to US pressure, there is little sign that the Bush administration plans to use the 30,000 or so combined Kurdish troops to act as a ground force in the event of an assault on the Baghdad regime.
Diplomats say the US has no wish to see the Kurds move just a short distance south and take the oil-rich towns of Mosul and Kirkuk. Nonetheless, there are indications that the Kurds will attempt to do just that if they can reach a power-sharing agreement.
This in turn has prompted widespread speculation in Arbil that Turkish government forces would intervene to secure Mosul, which historically has had a large Turkmen population. Turkish troops already have bases just inside northern Iraq and support from proxy Turkman forces in Arbil.
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Financial Times; Oct 04, 2002
Rival factions seek common ground
By Guy Dinmore in Arbil, Iraq, and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran
For the first time in eight years, Iraq's rival Kurdish factions will today hold a joint session of parliament as they search for a united strategy ahead of an expected US- led military overthrow of Saddam Hussein's government in Baghdad.
The meeting of the National Assembly in Arbil in northern Iraq, just 10km from the front line with Iraqi forces, follows concerted pressure from the US administration on the Kurds to bury their differences and establish their democratic credentials.
The parliament has not met in full session since 1994, when fighting erupted between the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdish Democratic party (KDP), leading to their territorial division of the north.
Jalal Talabani, the PUK leader, is expected to leave his stronghold in Sulaimani to return to Arbil for a ceremonial opening jointly hosted by his old rival, Masoud Barzani of the KDP.
"This is a major milestone in the reconciliation process between the KDP and PUK," Fawzi Hariri, a KDP spokesman, said. Iraq's neighbours, though no friends of the Baghdad regime, are less than enthusiastic, however.
In Tehran, an Iranian government spokesman said that the meeting was a "very domestic issue for Iraq" and that Iran had declined an invitation to attend as a guest. Turkey and Syria are also expected to stay away.
The three neighbouring countries, with substantial Kurdish minorities of their own, have no desire to promote a process they suspect will eventually lead to a bid by the Iraqi Kurds to set up an independent state.
High on the agenda for the Kurdish parliament is a joint proposal to establish a federal Iraqi state, divided between Kurds and Arabs, once Mr Hussein is removed.
Many Kurds are sceptical, however, that the two veteran Kurdish leaders will be able to settle serious issues, such as unification of their separate administrations and the sharing of revenues.
Today's meeting of all 105 members of parliament follows heightened tension just to the south of Arbil. Three weeks ago observers reported a heavy build-up of Iraqi armour, tank barrels pointed to the north. Some have since withdrawn.
But with Arbil lying north of the 36th parallel and protected by a US- and UK-imposed no-fly zone, Kurds appear confident that Baghdad will not intervene and repeat the events of 1991, when a Kurdish uprising was put down with huge loss of life and the flight of 1.5m refugees.
Although the main Kurdish factions have bent to US pressure, there is little sign that the Bush administration plans to use the 30,000 or so combined Kurdish troops to act as a ground force in the event of an assault on the Baghdad regime.
Diplomats say the US has no wish to see the Kurds move just a short distance south and take the oil-rich towns of Mosul and Kirkuk. Nonetheless, there are indications that the Kurds will attempt to do just that if they can reach a power-sharing agreement.
This in turn has prompted widespread speculation in Arbil that Turkish government forces would intervene to secure Mosul, which historically has had a large Turkmen population. Turkish troops already have bases just inside northern Iraq and support from proxy Turkman forces in Arbil.
"The battle for Kirkuk will be no less bloody than the war in Baghdad," commented an Iranian analyst in Tehran with close ties to the government. Iran's defence minister has stated, however, that Iranian forces have no intention of crossing the border, which would risk US retaliation.
The parliamentary building in Arbil has been spruced up with fresh coats of paint and new panes of glass. Yellow ribbons were cut yesterday to celebrate the inauguration of a closed-circuit television system and the broadcasting of proceedings.
As one delegate commented: "We are waiting, like everyone else, for the attack on Baghdad. It's not in our interests to have an independent state now. Everyone around us is terrified of that. But who knows in the future?"