Financial Times; Oct 16, 2002
WORLD NEWS: Vote hurdle in Security Council lies ahead for Washington
By Carola Hoyos at the United Nations in New York
While Washington focuses on France, Russia and China in its campaign to win the United Nations Security Council's approval for military action against Iraq, a handful of the council's smaller members, from Ireland to Cameroon, are beginning to wield quiet, but significant, influence.
Unlike the five permanent (P5) members - the UK, the US, France, Russia and China - none of the council's 10 elected members - Colombia, Ireland, Mauritius, Norway, Singapore, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Guinea, Mexico and Syria - can scuttle a resolution with one swoop of a veto.
Their power lies in numbers: even if Washington is able to persuade all the permanent members to refrain from blocking the resolution, it still needs nine votes in favour for a resolution to pass.
"One role the E10 [elected 10] have is as a representative of the non-membership," said one diplomat. "It works both ways, some council members prefer being the voice of the people, some try to play as full a part as possible in their two years."
Without an official draft resolution on the table, and much of the discussion taking place between the permanent five behind closed doors, the game is difficult to call. Nevertheless, quietly evolving objections to the unofficial US text among the elected 10 members has allowed permanent members of the council that oppose the US position - Russia, France and China - to brush aside talk of a veto on the basis that they may never have to use it.
The US may not be able to muster the nine votes needed to pass the resolution, they argue, pointing out that Ireland, Cameroon, Syria and possibly Mauritius are wary of giving Washington immediate authority for military action against Iraq, rather than leaving the Security Council to decide what constitutes a trigger for war.
Kofi Annan, UN secretary-general, alluded to the non-permanent members' sentiment last week, saying: "I think the member states want a two-stage approach: send in the inspectors. .. if they get into trouble, if it fails, come back and we will pass the second resolution."
For many elected members of the Security Council, including Mexico, the fewer votes that are cast for the US, and the stronger the anti-US voices in the General Assembly, the more difficult it becomes to back Washington without appearing a pawn of the superpower.
But even if a resolution were to pass the Security Council, diplomats warn that anything below 12 or 13 votes in favour would be seen as a failure to send Saddam Hussein, Iraq's leader, a firm, unified message to accept weapons inspectors and destroy his country's weapons of mass destruction, or face the consequences.
The US will face an extra challenge in January, when five of the E10 - Bulgaria, Cameroon, Guinea, Mexico and Syria - end their two-year stint at the horseshoe table and Chile, Germany, Pakistan, Spain and Angola take their seats.
Diplomats have given themselves about two more weeks to find a compromise between the two positions that have begun the crystalise within the council.
On one side are those who support France's proposal of a two-step process that would set tough demands for Iraq and a strengthened mandate for UN weapons inspectors in a first resolution, but would leave the authorisation of military force, in case of further breaches, to a second.
The US, most loyally backed by the UK, however, wants one all-embracing resolution that would allow it to pursue a military campaign against Baghdad immediately, if Mr Hussein does not comply.
Colin Powell, US secretary of state, said yesterday the French had proposed "some ideas" that the US was considering, as part of a constant flow of amendments and suggested compromises that has continued for the last month.
"We'll be responding to those ideas, and we'll see how things unfold," he said, adding: "We continue to believe that one resolution would suffice."
In Chicago, Jack Straw, the British foreign secretary, insisted the UN resolution must preserve its threat of force in order to maintain pressure on the Iraqis.
Diplomats remain optimistic about the prospect of finding a compromise, and expect the French position to get a boost in the next two days, when the Security Council holds an open debate on the issue. That will give any UN member the chance to speak.
So far more than 50 countries have signed up to voice their opinions. But their impact will be limited. Unlike the 15 members of the Security Council, they have a voice, but not a vote.