On Sat, 19 Oct 2002, Peter K. wrote:
> As I understand it the Kurds are already fighting Hussein. And the
> reason they are better off than they once were - and better off than the
> Palestinians - is the American and British military. Am I missing
> something?
Yep. The Kurds made it quite clear when we canvassed them six months ago that they were against intervention. You are quite right that they are better off because of the American and British military. Plus UN relief funds plus a million dollars a day in transit taxes they charge Saddam for smuggling oil through to Turkey in trucks that we turn a blind eye to. Sheltering under our wing and supplied with aid and taxes that our present regime makes possible, they are as well off as they've ever been. They are at peace with each other (a rare thing -- they even waged a civil war against each other during 1993-1996 under our umbrella) and they have a vital public culture (30 newspapers, with a broader range of views published than we have here). So things are good by Kurdish standards. They are richer and freer and safer than they've ever been before. And certainly than they are in any neighboring country.
Now of course, if we tell them they've got to fight, they've got to fight -- we control the vertical. But to say we're fighting on their behalf, or fighting to lift their oppression, is completely wrong. We've already lifted their oppression. They'd love five more years like the last five. Maybe they could do better in a federal Iraq. But maybe they could do worse. After all, they're only 20% of the population, most of the rest considers them traitors, and thinks as much of them as Czechs think of gypsies. And their neighbors have historically all been tougher on the Kurds that Saddam is, believe it or not, and will categorically refuse to believe that and more formalized autonomous area is not a state in embryo that will soon want swathes of their territory. So they can be counted on to try to fuck it up in ways they haven't been doing in the 90s. So under no circumstances whatsoever can we say this war is being fought for the Kurds. All we can say is that come the peace, they deserve their share, and getting it to them is going to be tricky.
Getting them to keep what they've got, on the other hand, would be simplicity itself. The Kurds and Baghdad have long reached a modus vivendi. It's not only the taxes. Kurdish teams come to Baghdad to play soccer in the national league.
Saddam, for all his bloodthirsty horrible faults, has less problem with Kurdish autonomy than Iran or Turkey or Syria. After all, he's the one who offered them autonomy in the early 1970s to his neighbors' horror. (They didn't even admit that Kurds existed in their territories until recently, and that grudgingly.) All he really cares about (besides that they shouldn't aid his enemies in wars to the death) is the oil under Kirkuk -- which we specifically didn't put in the northern Kurdish zone because Turkey objected. Even though Kirkuk is only miles away, plays an absolutely central role in Kurdish history and culture and is full of Kurds who are now trapped outside the zone suffering like all other Iraqis.
As for them "already fighting Saddam" that's a little murky. Now that war seems inevitable, they are certainly up for taking part, since that's the best way to make sure their good fortune continues. But the latest indications is that we are not planning to use their help, precisely because we know the first thing they'll jump for is Kirkuk, since it's the obvious close military target and the thing they most desire in the world (followed by Mosul, a bit farther away). And that would drive Turkey absolutely nuts and she's said so in no uncertain terms. (Besides the state part, Kirkuk is also full of Turkomen, i.e., ethnic Turks.) In fact, over the last four months Turkey and Iran have already started intervening and trying to manipulate Barzani and Talabani. (Barzani wasn't allowed to come to the states a couple of weeks ago to join the opposition panels because Turkey wouldn't let him cross the border.) In short, so far our rush to war has already made things a bit worse for the Kurds. We're definately not doing this for them.
One thing I'll have to give this administration, though. They've said almost everything, true and false, to justify this invasion. But I don't think even they've said they're doing it for the Kurds.
Michael