Vremya Novostei October 25, 2002 WHAT IT MEANS FOR RUSSIA Some leading political scientists speculate on the changes awaiting Russia Author: Olga Koleva [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] THE GENERAL OPINION IS THAT SEPTEMBER 11, 2001 TURNED THE WORLD UPSIDE DOWN. IT SEEMS THAT OCTOBER 23, 2002 MAY TURN RUSSIA UPSIDE DOWN. LIFE IN MOSCOW WILL NEVER BE THE SAME. OPINIONS ON THE HOSTAGE CRISIS FROM GLEB PAVLOVSKY, IGOR BUNIN, VYACHESLAV NIKONOV, AND VALERY FEDOROV.
GLEB PAVLOVSKY OF THE EFFECTIVE POLICY FOUNDATION: IT IS A SMALLER VERSION OF JUNE 22.
Pavlovsky: The blow was sudden - and all systems were caught unprepared. This blow doesn't have anything to do with Chechnya. These men once fought for the independence of Chechnya, but this action all but destroys any chance of the political wing of Aslan Maskhadov's group being recognized or even spoken to by the rest of the world. Needless to say, neither Europe nor the United States will talk to them any more. They are associated with Al Qaeda.
These terrorists don't care about negotiations. Their aim is to hold out for as long as possible. They want this to be seen as a political act; but they do not have any political demands. They are aiming to rock the nation they consider their enemy.
Our people are not idiots or riot enthusiasts; they do not want ethnic bloodshed. Apart from some small groups, that is. Unfortunately, all this will complicate the integration of other ethnic groups into the Slavic population zone, and dislike of immigrants will increase. We are a democratic society, and this tragedy will have an effect on virtually all political parties in the lead-up to the elections. Measures will be taken to restrict illegal immigration. It will provide the consensus our parties have lacked until now.
IGOR BUNIN, PRESIDENT OF THE POLITICAL TECHNIQUES CENTER: THIS IS A CRISIS OF PUTIN'S RULE.
Bunin: It is a crisis of Putin's rule, I think, like the previous crisis with the Kursk submarine. Putin managed to emerge from the Kursk crisis unscathed. But the scale of the current event can be compared to the September 11 tragedy and the terrorist acts in Yemen and Bali. Putin cannot accept compromises, because it will cost him his image as a no-nonsense leader who rose to power on the slogan of "killing them off in the toilets". It is clear that negotiations are impossible, and that storming a building full of explosives in central Moscow is equally impossible. These actions will have an impact. The scenario used in Peru is the only solution, I think. On the other hand, the terrorists in Peru were idealists: while prepared to die for an idea, they were not prepared to murder hostages. Everything is different in Moscow, where we are dealing with the irreconcilables, with people who have never seen anything but war in their lives. If Putin finds a way out of this blind alley without loss of face, it would have to be a stroke of genius. The terrorists are trying to make it a global action, but they are wrong to rely on pro-Western politicians like Boris Nemtsov or Grigory Yavlinsky. They think that the West is their ally, but the tactics of negotiation have changed since the events of September 11 and in Yemen and Bali. These people will merely be added to the world's list of "global evils". I don't think the West will come to their aid.
VYACHESLAV NIKONOV, PRESIDENT OF THE POLITICS FOUNDATION: OUR LEADERS WILL NOT BE WILLING TO APPEASE GUERRILLAS.
Nikonov: The consequences will be as follows. First: I think the special operation in Chechnya will become much harsher now. The United States was not eager to appease Al Qaeda after September 11, and our leaders won't be willing to appease Chechen guerrillas after this.
Second: the chances of a counter-terrorism operation in Georgia will grow.
Third: ethnic discord in Russian cities may escalate. Unfortunately, most Russians usually can't tell Chechens from Azerbaijanis, or Georgians from Kabardins, and so on.
Fourth: the advanced nations of the West will feel unprecedented solidarity with us. This is the first time they are feeling for Russia in this manner. The Russian counter-terrorism operation will get wholehearted support.
Fifth: as for consequences for Putin, everything will depend on what will happen soon, not on what is happening right now. Society's immediate response to such large-scale terrorism is consolidation around the authorities: the popularity of the regime grows enormously. But the future reaction will depend on how the crisis is resolved. If the hostages are killed and the terrorists escape, it will create serious problems for the regime. If everything turns out all right, as we all hope, Putin will gain enormous political mileage.
VALERY FEDOROV: WE ARE IN FOR A CHAIN OF TERRORIST ACTS.
Fedorov: From now on, the federal authorities will no longer be able to pretend that everything in Chechnya is all right - that everything should be left to the professionals and the public can relax. This terrorist act makes it clear that the regime has failed to establish control in Chechnya or protect the nation from terrorism. This is a diagnosis for the regime, the Armed Forces, and security structures. I don't think this terrorist act will be an isolated event.
We will see a chain of terrorist acts, a harsher regime, and perhaps even the introduction of some elements of a state of emergency, which would become routine, with higher security and a general mobilization of the nation. Until now, all this was restricted to Chechnya alone. Such measures are abnormal for civil society, but normal for a region at war. We can forget all this now. Stronger security all over Russia is the number one priority now...
_________________________________________________________________ Surf the Web without missing calls! Get MSN Broadband. http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/freeactivation.asp