Putin the Invulnerable

Chris Doss itschris13 at hotmail.com
Tue Oct 29 16:45:20 PST 2002


Chechnya again helps Russia's Putin polish image October 29, 2002 By Jonathan Thatcher

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin's tough line on ending the Moscow theater siege has boosted his already high standing, at least for the moment.

This despite criticism from relatives of dead hostages over the use of a lethal mystery gas to end the siege, and calls for an inquiry into security lapses that allowed heavily armed Chechen hostage-takers to travel through Moscow.

The first poll conducted since the crisis erupted credited Putin with huge public support for his performance. Eighty-five percent of respondents backed his actions during the siege, with just 10 percent sharply critical, according to the survey conducted by the VTsIOM agency.

For reform-hungry and risk averse investors a politically stronger Putin is the key news, say analysts.

"Putin has raised the self-respect of his citizens, so long humiliated. Russians want to feel they are citizens of a strong power," said Mark Urnov, head of the Fund of Experts political foundation.

Russian commandos stormed the Moscow theater early on Saturday to free more than 750 people held hostage since Chechen guerrillas seized the building Wednesday night.

A gas used to stun the guerrillas before the raid began killed 115 of the hostages.

Russia's media, barred from reporting statements by the rebels during the siege, has largely toed the Kremlin line of a leader with the backbone to make the tough but right decision.

"After the tragedy at the theater, Russian society can now say with certainty that the authorities have shown they truly have authority," cheered Izvestia daily.

"Today, we bow our heads. But not in the same way as we did two years ago with the Kursk," it added.

Putin was heavily criticized for what many saw as his inept handling of the Kursk submarine disaster which sank in August 2000 after a torpedo exploded, killing all 118 on board.

"Then, the country was stricken with despair. Today, we have shown that we can be a nation. Not just people and residents. But a nation, courageous and responsible," the paper said.

POLITICIANS QUICK TO PRAISE

Politicians too have been quick to rally behind Putin.

"President Putin acted absolutely correctly by refusing to talk with terrorists... Had he done that, it would have been a display of sheer weakness and irresponsibility," said liberal politician Boris Nemtsov.

"It would have signaled the end of Russia," he added.

His Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) nonetheless demanded a parliamentary inquiry into the siege, particularly the question of how so many heavily armed rebels could move freely through the capital and take over a packed theater.

It was the vicious war in the southern region of Chechnya that played a key role in pushing Putin, previously a little known spy chief, into the Kremlin over two years ago.

His promise then to obliterate terrorists there won mass support from a population which tries anything from bribes to a doctor's certificate to keep its sons from conscription into the army and a dangerous spell fighting in Chechnya.

Analysts said most voters will likely applaud his latest tough approach to the rebel attack on his capital, one he was quick to link to the U.S.-led war on international terrorism.

Even before the Moscow theater siege, Putin's popularity rating was running at more than 70 percent and it was assumed he would sail through the 2004 presidential election.

"His personal popularity is pretty impregnable," said Tom Adshead, an analyst with investment house Troika Dialog.

SPIES KEEN ON REFORM TOO

He said the end of the siege also buoyed the position of the FSB domestic security service, which he saw as backing the reforms that the investment community wants Putin to continue pushing through.

Adshead said the FSB supported bureaucratic reform and the fight against endemic corruption.

But some analysts said the final benefit for Putin depended on whether he could keep the Chechen problem from again spilling beyond the tiny mountainous region in the south of Russia.

"In the short run it's a political gain for Putin... But in the long term it depends on whether this is a one-off...whether this is contained," said Peter Westin, senior economist with Moscow brokerage Aton.

Most believe that if anything Putin, whose policy on Chechnya appears to have emerged publicly unscathed from the attack, will in fact tighten the screws on the shattered north Caucasus province and continue to block any political solution.

"Russia finds itself in an even more difficult position -- peace is further away in Chechnya with even fainter hopes for talks," said Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the liberal Yabloko party and a frequent critic of Putin.

(Additional reporting by Larisa Sayenko)

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