Steve P vs. Chris H

Gar Lipow lipowg at sprintmail.com
Wed Oct 30 09:00:15 PST 2002


>I hear you. The main reason I oppose this war has to do with what you've laid out: What would a post-Saddam Iraq look like? If this were a global effort to oust a potentially dangerous and destabilizing dictator and replace him with a multiethnic democracy, who here wouldn't sign on? (Well, I have some guesses . . .) But given the region and realpolitick, I cannot see anything but another Sunni regime keeping the Kurds and Shias in check, only this one would be beholden to Washington, much more so than Saddam ever was, and its use of force would be limited.

You might want to add the effects on other countries in region including Pakistan. Pakistan is a right wing military dictatorship - but not a Taliban style one. It and India already come regularly to the brink of nuclear war. A full fledge invasion of Iraq could push Pakistan over the edge into full Islamic fundamentalism. More likely, to stave this off, it could push the current government of Pakistan into more and louder nuclear brinkmanship. Either way, nuclear war with India becomes more probable. That is one hell of a consequence for the world.



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