Nezavisimaya Gazeta September 2, 2002 WASHINGTON IS ON THE OFFENSIVE AGAINST MOSCOW "NG" experts think that the US is playing the "Georgian card" in its own political interests.
Washington is closely following the conflict between Moscow and Tbilisi. Every incident on the Russian-Georgian border is being used by the American leadership as an opportunity to reprimand Russia. The tone of these condemnations is becoming all the more sharp, and the one- sidedness of the US position all the more distinct. Does this not mean that the United States has begun a large-scale geopolitical operation for the displacement of Russia from the Caucasus? This is the theme of today's "NG" expert poll.
Aleksei Arbatov, State Duma Defense Committee
I would call this something else. With its harsh statements in our address, official Washington is bowing to American public opinion, which supports Georgia to a greater extent than it does Russia. I doubt that any kind of serious practical action will follow these declarations, particularly now, when the Americans are occupied with preparation for the operation against Iraq, involved in a tense confrontation in the Middle East, and when they have great problems with Iran. In this context, I wouldn't speak of the beginning of a US geopolitical attack in the Caucasus, but rather of diplomatic pressure on Moscow, the goal of which is to make Moscow more amenable in certain issues that are particularly significant for Washington. First of all, issues linked with US plans in relation to Iraq and Iran. I would think that through the "hot line" and other channels that exist between the Kremlin and the White House all the practical issues of politics are being discussed in a tone that is calmer than that which is taken in public statements.
Andrei Fedorov, Foundation for Political Research and Consulting
I think that the "displacement operation" began a long time ago, and now it is simply reaching a new stage. The state of affairs that exists today gives the United States the opportunity to press us into a corner, and they are using it. And Russia's room for maneuver, of course, is becoming tighter. In the future we can expect still more negative reaction from Washington, especially if actions are taken on our part against Georgia that can be seen as encroaching on her sovereignty.
Igor Bunin, Center for Political Technologies
In my view, the sharp declarations of the US State Department and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, as in several articles published in such right wing papers as the "Wall Street Journal" or the "Financial Times," mean that on the eve of the US operation in Iraq there is a clarification of trading positions. Russia has laid out these trading positions: I am talking about the large contract with Iraq, the fact that we are demanding a resolution to the problem of the Pankisi Gorge, that we want to keep certain priority relations with the North Korean dictator, and so forth. This is our trading position. As the "Wall Street Journal" observed, Russia, apparently, thinks that it was not rewarded for its support of the American operation in Afghanistan and now it will begin to start trading. And very obstinately. In this situation the US, and particularly the right flank of the Republican Party, is trying to show that Russia wants more than it should get. "Russia should get something," they say, "but what and how much should be up to us." That is the US trading position. After the positions of both sides are made clear, the real trading begins, which probably will not be in the form of declarations for the press.
Gleb Pavlovsky, Foundation for Effective Politics
We can hardly speak about real pretensions of Washington to a serious presence in the Caucasus. The US is entirely unprepared for such a presence, as they still haven't seriously taken root in the Middle East. Today it isn't the Caucasus that are on America's agenda, but entirely different problems. The declaration regarding the bombing of Georgian territory must be seen in the context of the virtual campaign being worked out by the White House in preparation for the military operation in Iraq. In its way it is an asymmetrical response to the announcement of the Russian-Iraqi trade agreements. I would direct people's attention to a very interesting aspect: the US declaration in fact means that Washington sees the territory of Georgia as a zone of responsibility of Russia, and not of Tbilisi. Although the Americans have no proof that the bombs were dropped by Russian bombers, and though even certain Georgian sources are advancing entirely different theories, for some reason the White House immediately addresses its questions to Moscow. It appears that Tbilisi is not seen as a sovereign state, capable of bearing responsibility for what happens on Georgian territory. True, Russia so far is also not prepared to take such responsibility, and should not make attempts to control that which Tbilisi cannot control. At least Russia should not give a pretext for accusations in her address. Even if these accusations, as in the present case, are purely propaganda in the framework of pre-war (if again Iraq is considered) maneuvers by Washington.
(Trans. by Timothy Blauvelt)
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