The State Statistics Committee recently reported some sensational news: according to all statistical indicators, including living standards, Russia has extricated itself from the August 1998 crisis. Vladimir Sokolin, head of the State Statistics Committee, discusses the current balance sheet of "the Russia Corporation".
Question: Can statistics tell us how much Russia is worth? In current market prices.
Vladimir Sokolin: Actually, that indicator is called "national wealth". As at the start of 2001, it stood at 25.2064 trillion rubles - that includes the value of basic funds, private assets, and material items of exchange. But you were right to specify current market prices. A real problem arises here. Valuation, the institution which ought to determine the value of our corporations in market terms, is still weak. Our national wealth is significantly undervalued; it is based on "balance value" - an indicator which is ten years old. Actually, there are problems with market prices as well. Say I buy a pack of cigarettes here for the equivalent of 50 cents; in New York, the same pack would cost five dollars. So we end up calculating our national wealth the same way: the Americans use their own prices, and we use ours.
Question: Russia has recently legalized the purchase and sale of land. How soon can we expect this move to correct our national wealth figures?
Sokolin: A few years ago, Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzkhov asked his ministers this question: What is the value of the land around the statue of Yuri Dolgorukii in central Moscow? I don't think Luzhkov would get an answer to that even now. There is no market price for land as yet, neither in Moscow nor in Russia as a whole; but this is a very important part of the economy. And take forestry: Russia has more timber than any other country, but we have no market valuation of our timber resources... By the way, Saudi Arabia is considered the richest nation in terms of explored reserves of mineral resources. But Russia is first in terms of natural gas reserves, far ahead of any other country: over 60% of the world's natural gas reserves are on Russian territory. If we calculate the value of this gas at current market prices, we would probably be the richest.
Question: But to my knowledge, the data on hydrocarbon reserves is currently classified as secret.
Sokolin: Yes, information on reserves and extraction of many natural resources, including oil and gas, is still a state secret in Russia. But what's the point of secrecy here, when in the case of oil, for example, it is being exported and the number of oil wells is known. Based on that, specialists can calculate the other figures within a few tons. Unfortunately, many anachronisms persist. Take this, for example: the number of railway carriages used for cargo is still a state secret. It was defined as such on June 22, 1941! What can one say to that? It's simply foolish.
Question: Have you suggested to your government colleagues that this approach should be changed?
Sokolin: At one point, a presidential decree listed a number of ministries and agencies which can define the degree of secrecy certain information requires. So let them do it.
Question: There's a lot of talk about the shadow economy these days. What is the scale of economic activity which falls outside the scope of state statistics?
Sokolin: Most of the shadow economy in Russia isn't drug trafficking or prostitution, but a phenomenon simply unknown in the West: small gardens outside the cities, owned by individuals. For some people, this form of market gardening is their main source of income. How can statistics keep track of that? Still, there are some methods. We know how much land people have; we know the approximate size of crops and number of animals. And we can value it on that basis.
Around 25% of Russia's GDP currently comes from this "unmonitored" sector.
Question: Is that 25% included in the GDP figures issued by the State Statistics Committee?
Sokolin: Of course. Otherwise we couldn't calculate the GDP. It has three components: production, consumption, and finance. If goods and services are produced, they have to be consumed. Remember how many problems there were with bringing alcohol production out of the shadows? We demonstrated the difference between vodka consumption (100 liters, let's say) and the production figures provided by enterprises (the equivalent of 50 liters). The difference was produced in the shadow economy. And we showed that production was falling, even as the capacity of enterprises was rising.
Question: You mentioned that living standards have returned to the levels of before the August 1998 crisis. How soon will they exceed those levels?
Sokolin: Within the next few months. The figures clearly indicate that we are in a fairly stable growth phase; depsite the seasonal fluctuations which will be seen in the figures for August, with a drop in industrial output compared to July. Such paradoxes do turn up in statistics: an apparent decline is observed, but in actual fact it's all for the best. It's like a body recovering from an illness: although the temperature isn't down to normal yet, recovery is underway.
Question: And how are we doing compared to the rest of the world?
Sokolin: Statistics fully Russia's right to a place in the G-8: all indicators show that the Russian economy is the world's sixth or seventh largest.
Question: Might the results of the upcoming census cause a major change in our perceptions of contemporary Russia?
Sokolin: There won't be any sensations. Our ongoing statistical record-keeping might be corrected or refined, no more. But some information cannot be obtained via ongoing statistical observations. For example, the make-up of the nation, the institution of the family. Moreover, a census enables us to look into the future, to understand what will happen tomorrow.
Question: And how far ahead can we see?
Sokolin: A 20-year demographic forecased based on census data is 99.99% reliable. For example, based on the 1979 census - when no one knew the Soviet Union would fall apart, or that Yeltsin and Gaidar would come along - it was predicted that from 1994 onward Russia would enter a period of steady depopulation, population decline. At the time, there was no reaction from the public. The "cross on Russia's grave" - a death rate higher than the birth rate - was first recorded in autumn 1992, a year before the predicted date. Remember how Gaidar was blamed for the declining birth rate? And he answered: "But my government hasn't even been in power for nine months yet!"
Question: According to the State Statistics Committee, Russia's population is currently at 143.5 million. But 215 million census forms have been printed. Isn't that too many?
Sokolin: There are several different census forms. The basic one is the K form (the brief version): eleven questions which everyone will answer. A quarter of households - that's around 35-37 million people - will also answer extra questions on the D form. There are also forms for temporary immigrants, and forms to collect data about housing conditions... So we have 215 million. Census-taking methodology is very complicated; humanity has been working on it for the past two centuries.
Question: According to the most optimistic poll results, around 90% of citizens intend to take part in the census, and 70% of them are prepared to answer the questions honestly. Don't these figures indicate that the picture we'll get from the census results will be not entirely accurate, to put it mildly?
Sokolin: The poll respondents haven't actually seen the census questions. When they do see what we'll be asking them - their sex, their date of birth, ethnic background, education level, source of income... Well, what's so scary about those questions? As for the source of income question, there are several answer options provided: pension, unemployment benefits, wages, savings. People can choose one or more of these options.
Question: So there won't be any question about the amount of income?
Sokolin: Census forms in the West do collect data on income levels. However, our people are not yet ready for that degree of openness.
Question: Will the census results be published in full this time?
Sokolin: Some census data was classified as secret in Soviet times. However, this was primarily related to national security rather than any social phenomena. But these days it simply makes no sense to keep such things secret. Given the upcoming military reforms, for example, what's the point of concealing the number of boys - potential soldiers? In my view, doing so was foolish even in the Soviet era. Our census program doesn't include any plans to keep results secret; we should present society with the full picture. (Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)
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