go long coffee, short SBUX

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Wed Sep 18 13:58:30 PDT 2002


From those socio-economists at the Elliott Wave Theorist:


>Forbes magazine will in all likelihood soon be publishing our
>analysis on Starbucks Corp. (SBUX). I want you to read it first so I
>will discuss the highlights here. For Forbes we have basically,
>updated our analysis presented in the December 2001 issue of The
>Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. You will recall that in that issue
>we forecast a significant bottom for coffee and a top for the stock
>of Starbucks. Our premise was that Starbucks was a major beneficiary
>of the stock market mania. Much like the tea rooms of the 1920s and
>the coffee houses that actually hosted much of the stock trading
>during the South Sea Bubble of 1720, the 1990's coffee craze was a
>reflection of a surging bullish mood. People were not buying coffee
>at Starbucks, they were buying the ambience and social interaction
>that it offered. In other words it wasn't the coffee, but the
>psychology. As the bull market psychology morphs to bear, Starbucks
>should be negatively affected.



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