September 23, 2002
Financial Times
Arafat siege hits hopes of early political reforms
By Harvey Morris
An early casualty of the latest siege on Yassir Arafat looks like being the reform process within his Palestinian Authority, just at the moment it was promising to bear fruit.
This week, Mr Arafat was due to present a list of nominees for a new cabinet, after his rebellious Palestinian parliament forced the resignation of the old ministerial team on September 11.
Even though Mr Arafat was pushing for an extension of the deadline, parliamentarians and reformist members of his dominant Fatah movement believed his old autocratic style of leadership would not last. The reformists were confident they were finally on the point of getting him to agree to surrender executive powers to a prime minister, something that not only they, but also Israel and the US have been demanding.
Now, with Mr Arafat once more marooned in an ever-shrinking corner of his Ramallah compound as Israeli tanks and bulldozers wreak havoc outside, the pressure is off.
Thoughts of early political reforms have evaporated, as Palestinians, who were last week excoriating their leader for the PA's corruption and political failure, take to the streets to demonstrate in his favour.
Characteristically, many Palestinians smell an Israeli conspiracy. "They have saved Arafat and cancelled all chances for appointing a prime minister," said one senior West Bank security official. According to the conspiracy theorists, Ariel sharon, Israeli prime minister, fears that fundamental reform within the PA will put him under intense pressure to reciprocate, from the international community, including the US.
Others, however, accuse the government of Mr Sharon of thrashing around blindly to try to assuage Israeli public opinion after last week's suicide bombings. Israel blamed Mr Arafat for the bombings, although responsibility was claimed by the Islamic opposition.
"I've given up trying to read the mind of the Sharon government," said Manuel Hassassian, political analyst at Bethlehem University. "They just appear to be operating under pressure with no vision."
Until the tanks returned to the Ramallah compound on Thursday night, Fatah leaders had been pressing Mr Arafat to appoint his deputy in the Palestine Liberation Organisation, Mahmoud Abbas, as prime minister.
Mr Abbas, popularly known as Abu Mazen, is a 67-year-old moderate who was an architect of the Oslo peace accords. A co-founder of Fatah, he has been critical of the militarisation of the Palestinian uprising. He belongs to the old guard leadership that returned from exile with Mr Arafat, but is widely respected within Fatah.
Other names being floated last week included Nabil Sha'ath, planning minister and another member of the old guard. But to many Fatah activists, he is associated with an old regime that they accuse of mismanagement and corruption.
A dark horse is Munib al-Masri, a Texas-educated multi-millionaire with extensive business interests in the Palestinian territories, who is an independent member of the PLO central committee.
For now, however, the speculation is largely academic. The suicide bombings and the Israeli response have ended the period of calm the reformists needed.
Some Fatah activists claim that the Sharon government and the Islamic groups have a common interest in quashing the reform movement.
"We are in favour of ending shootings and bombings in exchange for a real positive echo from the international community towards a political solution," said Mohamed Abdel-Nabi Laham, Fatah leader in Bethlehem's Deheishe refugee camp. "But Hamas and Sharon are both acting to undermine Fatah."