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POLITRUK WAR IN IRAQ AND ELECTIONS IN RUSSIA: JUST AS COMRADE STALIN PRESCRIBED Issue No. 11, 02 Apr 2003
While the war in Iraq has retreated slightly from the front pages this week, it still remains one of the big topics for the Russian media.
"Kommersant-Vlast" magazine did the figures: during the first week of the war, there were 1,432 articles about it in 22 national newspapers and seven magazines.
In 256 (18%) of these, the actions of the United States and Britain were described as aggression. However, only 14% of the articles covered battles or armed clashes. A significantly higher number (30%) were devoted to oil.
According to "Kommersant-Vlast", casualties of the war were mentioned in only 14% of the articles, and destruction in only 8%. The Russian press has even less interest in the fate of the Iraqi people: the term "civilians" was used in only 5% of the articles.
However, it is well known that television has more influence on public opinion than the newspapers do. And images captioned "Iraq War" never left the screens. The attacks on Baghdad and Basra, their consequences, reports of missiles gone astray, the wounded in Iraq's hospitals (none of them bearing any resemblance to Saddam's cut-throats), anti-war protests in Europe and the United States itself - all this has had an impact.
Not surprisingly, a VTsIOM poll reported in the "Vremya Novostei" newspaper reveals that over half of respondents believe the war in Iraq could escalate into a world war.
"Vremya Novostei" notes that President Putin has been fairly restrained in his comments on US actions in Iraq; contrary to the expectations of the radicals, he only described the start of the military operation as "a big mistake".
Nevertheless, according to "Vremya Novostei", the consequences of that mistake will have to be dealt with by others besides President George W. Bush.
Firstly, says "Vremya Novostei", the Russian military lobby will undoubtedly not lose this opportunity to demand a further rise in status for the security and law enforcement agencies, as well as drastic increases in defense spending.
What's more, Russian political parties - especially United Russia and associated centrist groups - "might suddenly realize that the tricolor needs some extra red".
And overall, an upswing in anti-American attitudes in the lead-up to elections could cost Russia dearly - after all, Putin's pro-West foreign policy agenda is known to have been his main trump card, at least in the eyes of the more competent part of the Russian elite.
However, as "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" notes, "it seems that even in Soviet times we never saw such consistent, pervasive anti-Americanism".
Of course, Russia has no intention of ending strategic partnership with America, says "Vremya Novostei"; but pursuing such policies while a wave of "americaphobia" sweeps the country will be substantially more difficult.
"NG-Regiony" (a supplement to "Nezavisimaya Gazeta") reports that the rise in anti-American attitudes is being reported virtually nationwide. True, things haven't gone as far as they did during the war in Serbia: people aren't burning American flags or volunteering to fight. The protests are taking more unusual forms.
For example, in a number of Russian cities - from Taganrog to Kstov - various providers of services are making demonstrative statements about refusing service to US citizens - providing any US citizens are in the area, of course.
So far, lacking any opportunity to express their objections directly to anyone from the US military, Russian citizens have only been producing graffiti insulting the United States.
There have been a few anti-war demonstrations (in Kazan, Krasnoyarsk, and St. Petersburg), but they were very small. Despite being alarmed by the start of the military operation, Russian citizens are clearly taking the approach summed up by a headline in "Izvestia": "This isn't our war."
"Kommersant-Vlast" attempted to answer this question: why, when VTsIOM polls show 85% opposition to the war, there are no public protests in Russia like there are in Europe.
"Kommersant-Vlast" points out a Russian historical tradition: people don't turn out on the streets to demonstrate on their own initiative, but only when called upon to do so by "the party and the government". As noted above, the Kremlin is holding back from issuing any such calls. So are the political parties, as it turns out, for all their interest in what might be some very advantageous pre-campaign PR.
A source in the United Russia party staff, who prefers to remain anonymous, told "Kommersant-Vlast": "Essentially, we are the president's party. And the Kremlin is describing the war as a violation of international law, not as aggression. In other words, if we called on people to demonstrate against it, we would be letting the president down."
The Communists have made some attempts to protest against the war in Iraq, but these have not been very successful. According to Ivan Melnikov, deputy chairman of the CPRF central committee, it would be futile to count on large numbers of people taking to the streets right now: "At the moment, people have no great desire to demonstrate about international issues: everyone is more concerned about Russia's domestic problems." Moreover, the opposition, which always complains about difficulties in obtaining permits for demonstrations, fears that in the present situation - "when the president has taken a cautious stance towards the United States" - permits would simply be denied.
The democratic parties are even more neutral.
Sergei Ivanenko, Yabloko faction leader in the Duma, considers that Russian citizens clearly are not inclined to take part in demonstrations. Ivanenko said: "In order for a demonstration to take place, people have to want to demonstrate. Meanwhile, the government is being very cautious in its opposition to the war, and the latest polls show that citizens are cautiously supporting the president's policies."
The Union of Right Forces has its own motives for showing restraint. Boris Nemtsov told "Kommersant-Vlast": "We might oppose the war in Iraq. But at the moment we have no wish to be part of the general anti-American hysteria."
Nemtsov agrees that America is posing a threat to the sovereignty of all nations; but he considers that in condemning America's foreign policy, "it is important to avoid going to ludicrous extremes".
Thus, as "Kommersant-Vlast" concludes, practically all the parties are blaming the president for their own inaction. The loyalist parties are prevented from calling people out on the streets by the lack of any instructions to that effect from the Kremlin. The opposition is hampered by the public's inconsistency: on the one hand, people condemn the American president's policies, but on the other, they don't want to let their own president down by any unsanctioned protests.
"Kommersant-Vlast" notes: "Neither Saddam Hussein nor Russian political parties are capable of shaking the people's love for President Putin."
According to "Novaya Gazeta" observer Andrei Piontkovsky, ever since it became clear that the American blitzkrieg in Iraq wasn't working, "the prevailing attitude among the Russian elite - imposed via television on the rest of society - has been triumphantly malicious joy."
Piontkovsky quotes "a Kremlin media pool correspondent" as saying that the president's team is especially proud of the successful referendum in Chechnya against the backdrop of the US operation becoming drawn out, with many casualties among coalition troops as well as civilians.
However, while various TV polls indicate that most viewers want Iraq to win, Piontkovsky says this will not happen: "The Americans won't go away, because now there is nowhere for them to go." One way or another, the United States will manage to overthrow Saddam Hussein and install a pro-American regime - even though this might be more costly than the Americans had anticipated.
This is due to some serious miscalculations in both the political and military planning of the operation. And in this sense, stresses Piontkovsky, President Putin is correct to speak of the United States making "a big political mistake".
However, Russia should be wary of the present wave of "open anti-Americanism". This has to be understood: if America has made a mistake, it is "a mistake made by our key partner in the global coalition, whose defeat would mean a defeat for the whole coalition, which would pose a great danger for all its participants, including Russia." This awareness is the main reason for the Russian government's restraint in its assessment of US actions.
Unfortunately, says Piontkovsky, restraint does not come naturally to television: "That is the nature of the genre in this most important of the arts." Rational thought is not in demand there; "the ten minutes, half-hours, or many hours of hate for the United States now sweeping from channel to channel look so much more impressive."
Piontkovsky says all this creates the impression that Russia's political consultants have abandoned previous efforts to use Chechnya for the purpose of consolidating society, and are preparing "a new consolidation of the nation - this time based on anti-Americanism."
This places President Putin in a difficult position. If he ignores the rising tide of anti-American hysteria and attempts to maintain relations with the United States, this might be interpreted as evidence that he is weak and prepared to make further concessions to Russia's powerful partner.
But if Putin goes with the anti-American flow, that would be a clear break with the stance he has taken ever since September 11. "All his opponents would immediately rush into this political breach - everyone from the Communists to that exile in London - reminding him of US bases in Central Asia, and our abandoned bases in Vietnam and Cuba, and many other 'concessions' made to what would now be Russia's acknowledged Number One Enemy."
In other words, as Piontkovsky warns, "anti-American hysteria could lead Russia into a dead end for domestic politics as well as foreign policy."
However, as Kirill Rogov writes in the "Vedomosti" newspaper, it's really hard not to be anti-American these days. The Russian public is annoyed by "all their conceit, and how accustomed they are to victory with few casualties on their side, and their arrogance, and their sense of superiority."
Moreover, says Rogov, in Russia virtually no thought is being given to the meaning Americans themselves attach to the war; Russian commentary is restricted to "high-minded analysis" of "the true goals of the war on Iraq (oil, overcoming the recession, political dominance, and George W. Bush's domestic political problems)".
Yet if we look more closely at the official rhetoric of the US administration, it turns out that it's by no means entirely meaningless.
The Americans claim that the old "doctrine of restraint" has become obsolete since September 11. This is because the major threat is now posed not by global superpowers, but by marginalized regimes which aim to obtain weapons of mass destruction - since that would make them invulnerable.
Kirill Rogov asks: "Would you like to see Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden - or eventually, inevitably, Shamil Basaev - in possession of a nuclear bomb?" Yet it is impossible to avert this threat within the framework of international law as it stands; all we can do is silently watch the threat draw closer.
"Vedomosti" emphasizes that this is the reasoning behind "the Bush doctrine - a doctrine of preventive, pre-emptive warfare". "Vedomosti" describes this reason
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WPS Russian Media Monitoring Agency
POLITRUK is a weekly survey of the most important articles included in WHAT THE PAPERS SAY ( http://www.wps.ru/e_catalogue.html ), a digest of Russian dailies and weeklies compiled, translated and published by WPS Russian Media Monitoring Agency twice a day. Back issues of POLITRUK are available at WPS web site at http://www.wps.ru/chitalka/en/ © WPS Russian Media Monitoring Agency, 1999-2001 Phone +7-095-955-2950; Fax. +7-095-955-2927 E-mail: wpsinfo at wps.ru; URL: http://www.wps.ru/e_index.html
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