> Dean is working on collecting antiwar votes but I'm curious if antiwar
>activists will put real energy into his campaign. It doesn't involve all
>the fun and funky rallies but boring door knocking and such
-Getting snide, aren't we. I thought you were the guy who thought the real actrion was -not in 3d parties but in mass movements. -Anyway, you know Dean's not gonna win the nomination, and if he does, -he'll get creamed in the general election -- he'd be another McGovern.
I've had the criticism of too much focus on rallies for a long time outside the electoral context as well. And you're right that I think grassroots mass movements and building general organizing strengthn is more important than direct electoral politics, since electoral strength builds on solid organization at the base that can be turned out for elections as needed. But I think those spending their time on third party organizing are not only wasting time but doing active harm the way they've approached the issue (running against folks like Wellstone for example), my attitude is that they should redirect the time if they are infatuated with electoral political work.
As for Dean, if the war goes really badly, I think he has a fair chance of getting the nomination-- the buzz he's getting and the national organization he's building is on a scale no "fringe" candidate has had since Jackson in 1988 and the wide open field in 1976. And his pro-gun stance could get him some odd cultural conservative support that will broaden his base in some midwest and southern states.
And I still have a hard cold prediction that Bush will lose next year, almost regardless of who the Democrats nominate (okay, I think he might be able to beat Sharpton, but that's about it).
My bet is that John Kerry will get the nomination in the end, since his strategic waffle on Iraq and war hero and anti-war hero history means he is in the best position to pull together folks from both the hawk and dove wings of the party. At this point, Lieberman and Edwards are dead because of their strident pro-war positions, so in my mind that leaves only Dean and Kerry as likely nominees, with Gephardt a possibility if he can pull the AFL-CIO endorsement out of the hat.
I'd actually take an even money bet that the nomination goes to a Kerry-Graham ticket, which would romp to victory in the electoral college.
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