And exactly what is it that you would have Castro do? Suppose he and his colleagues were to step down and turned power over to the dissidents, what do you think the likely consequences would be? I don't think there is any great mystery about the likely consequences, we need only look what happened to the former Soviet Union, and eastern Europe, after 1991.
A "post-Communist" government would more than likely undertake to dismantle the socialism of the past forty years. The dismantling of centralized planning in Cuba would almost surely lead to an economic collapse, not unlike that experienced in the former Soviet Union and most of eastern Europe. Furthermore, such a government would be placed under enormous pressure to honor the claims of the Miami exiles, who would undoubtedly return to claim property that had been nationalized under Castro. And the exiles will undoubtedly have the might of Uncle Sam behind them, as they pressed their claims.
Such a government, as it faced a collapsing economy would then seek to borrow money, and attempt to obtain economic assistance from the US. I can pretty much guarantee that the quid pro quo for any such loans and assistance, whether from the US government or from agencies like the IMF, would be enormous slashes in social spending by the government. The social safety net that had been painstakingly built up over the past 45 years can then be expected to quickly unravel. Unemployment will mount, poverty increase, while the state will cut back on the provision of social services. The much vaunted gains that Cuba has made over the years in education and healthcare will soon become dim memories of the past.
So I think it would be a legitimate question to ask what this sort of "liberation" would accomplish.
Jim F.
On Sun, 13 Apr 2003 16:05:42 -0400 Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
writes:
> Michael Pugliese wrote:
>
> >Doug questions timing, which is reasonable given the slaughter of
> >thousands of Iraqi in the past weeks. But, I doubt very much given
> >he forwards Human Rights Watch bulletins that he wouldn't find the
> >lack of procedural justice appalling and the balance of political
> >views among the Cuban dissidents (ex-Marxists like Elizardo
> Sanchez,
> >left socdems, left Christian Democrat [like a Ruben Zamora of the
> >FDR-FMLN] sons of a founder of the Cuban Communist Party aka
> Popular
> >Socialist Party, unworthy.
>
> I'm enough of a liberal to think that procedural justice is very
> important. But, aside from the timing issue, which I think is
> critical, I'm still waiting for a good answer to a question I've
> asked here many times: how would you & other petition signers go
> about defending a revolutionary government against the machinations
> of the U.S., which would want to destroy you? There are real spies
> and plotters in Cuba, run from Miami and Langley. Hell, at this
> point, Washington would barely tolerate the mildest form of social
> democracy in Latin America. Until you can answer that question, I'm
> going to regard your petitions the same way I regard Nathan's view
> of
> the 82nd Airborne - as pious wishes completely removed from real
> history.
>
> Doug
> ___________________________________
> http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/mailman/listinfo/lbo-talk
>
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