[lbo-talk] The real thing?

[Doug Henwood]

C. G. Estabrook wrote:

>[Doug, here's another take on the suggestion that the U.S. economy may be
>looking better over the last couple of weeks. --CGE]

It wasn't a good report, that's for sure. The average workweek was 
down to the lowest level since numbers began in 1964, and the 
employment/pop ratio down to 1994 levels. Temp employment was up, 
usually a harbinger of future permanent job growth, but that's about 
the only good news. Job losses for June were revised upwards, and 
manufacturing has now lost jobs for 36 consecutive months, an 
all-time record by a long shot.

But: 1) the improvement in the jobless claims numbers over the last 
few weeks came after the week the employment survey was done (it's 
always the week containing the 12th), 2) the ISM manufacturing survey 
poked above 50 for the first time in months, meaning that production 
is expanding (but employment isn't - it's still well below 50), 3) 
the tax rebate checks are only beginning to hit mailboxes. So things 
look moderately brighter for the second half of the year, but there's 
no boom in view.

Doug