On Fri, 1 Aug 2003 Jamessuro at aol.com wrote:
> Now, it's possible that this was purely a random correlation. But we are
> talking about six years of data. And, as Roll points out, weather is
> likely the single biggest variable affecting the value of OJ futures. So
> it makes sense that futures traders would pay close attention to, and
> perhaps have insight into, weather patterns.
So let me get this straight. Because people are making judgments about investments, this allows them insights into weather patterns that are superior to those of trained scientists and beowulf clusters of computers? You say this isn't mystical, but it looks like a mystical argument to me ("how do they make such great decisions?" --"the market embues them with superior wisdom!"). It is interesting that there is a correlation between futures markets and outcomes like weather. However, as with all correlational research, there are various explanations that could explain why these variables are related, and the "market efficiency" explanation is only one possibility.
Miles