[lbo-talk] Markets and the tooth fairy - Orange juice futures

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Aug 1 11:46:55 PDT 2003


Jamessuro at aol.com wrote:


>Now, it's possible that this was purely a random correlation. But we
>are talking about six years of data. And, as Roll points out,
>weather is likely the single biggest variable affecting the value of
>OJ futures. So it makes sense that futures traders would pay close
>attention to, and perhaps have insight into, weather patterns.

Is that remotely plausible? How the hell would they know any better than meterologists? Some direct line to a wise old farmer who can tell from the look and feel of the sunset? I've ordered up the paper, but until it arrives - why that six-year period? Did he look at any other six-year periods? What was his r2? Etc.

DOug



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