[lbo-talk] Markets and the tooth fairy - Orange juice futures

[Doug Henwood]

Jamessuro at aol.com wrote:


>Roll shows that the NWS forecasts explain about 90% of the 
>variability in temperature. So the R2 is, I think, between 0.1-0.4, 
>since only 10% of the variability was going un-forecast.

I love this. The NWS explains 90% of the variability, and this gets 
translated in the popular mind to "the futures market forecasts the 
weather better than the government." Hilarious.

Doug