[lbo-talk] Calif recall

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Sat Aug 16 10:24:12 PDT 2003


[a summary of the Field Poll's latest on the Calif recall, posted to the AAPOR list]

--22 percent of registered voters approve of the job Davis is doing; 70 percent disapprove (41 percent of Democrats approve and 49 percent disapprove; 94 percent of Republicans disapprove).

--58 percent of likely voters said if they were voting today they would vote YES to remove Gray Davis from office -- up from 51% in July (92 percent of Republican likely voters would vote yes to remove Gray Davis, compared to 27 percent of Democrats--67 percent of Democrats would vote to keep Gray Davis as Governor).

--Only 22 percent of likely voters who voted for Davis in 2002 would vote to remove him from office today; 71 percent who supported him in 2002 would vote to keep Davis as Governor today.

--68% of likely voters expect Governor Davis will be removed from office (88 percent of Republicans; 49 percent of Democrats).

--49% of likely voters think Governor Davis should fight the recall, compared to 42 percent who think he should resign (65 percent of Republicans think he should resign; 71 percent of Democrats think he should fight).

--47 percent of likely voters think that holding a recall election of Governor Davis is a bad thing for California; 44 percent think it is a good thing (70 percent of Republicans think it is a good think; 71 percent of Democrats think it is a bad thing).

The study tested five arguments in favor of and six arguments in opposition to the Davis recall. A majority of those who said they will vote "yes" agreed with all the arguments in favor, and a majority of those who said they will vote "no" agreed with all the arguments against. Few arguments appealed to both "yes" and "no" voters, but there was some overlap...

--Overall, 65 percent of likely voters agreed, "Electing a new Governor will move California in a new direction" (36 percent of those who said they would vote "no" agreed).

--Overall, 60 percent of likely voters agreed, "The recall election is a bad thing because there are so many candidates running to replace Davis, the eventual winner will likely only get a small share of the total vote, and this is no way to elect a Governor" (40 percent of those who said they would vote "yes" agreed).

--Overall, 56 percent of likely voters agreed, "The cost of holding the recall election is a waste of taxpayer money" (31 percent of those who said they would vote "yes" agreed).

--Overall, 54 percent of likely voters agreed, "The recall election has become a joke, making California the laughing stock of the nation" (28 percent of those who said they would vote "yes" agreed).

--Overall, 44 percent of likely voters agreed, "Holding a recall so soon after Davis won re-election is just an attempt by the Republicans to undo last year's election results" (17 percent of those who said they would vote "yes" agreed).



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