The Globe and Mail (Canada) August 28, 2003 Chechen rivals brave bullets for ballots Kremlin's choice seen as favourite in race for election to perilous position By MARK MacKINNON
MOSCOW -- They may be 11 of the hardiest politicians in the world today -- or perhaps just some of the most foolish.
In the middle of another bloody week in the Chechen war, the usual mix of shootings, land mine blasts and car bombings, almost a dozen people stepped forward and said they wanted the dangerous job of leading the battle-scarred Russian republic.
Yesterday was the first day of candidate registration for Chechnya's Oct. 5 presidential election, part of a Kremlin effort to restore a semblance of normalcy to the republic after almost a decade of off-and-on fighting between federal forces and separatist guerrillas. Among those who put their names forward were a Duma deputy, a university lecturer, a businessman promising to bring in billions in investments and a hotel manager from a family with alleged ties to organized crime.
Also nominated was the incumbent, Akhmed Kadyrov, whose career illustrates the dangers associated with the job. Since being installed in the post three years ago, Mr. Kadyrov has survived a handful of assassination attempts, including one this May in which a suicide-bomber detonated her explosive belt just a few metres from where he was speaking. Fourteen people were killed in that attack.
Most observers expect the Kremlin-backed Mr. Kadyrov to win the race -- fairly or unfairly -- but they aren't sure why he'd want the job.
"I think only the mother of Kadyrov could keep him from becoming president," said Alexei Malashenko, senior researcher at the Moscow office of the Carnegie Centre for International Peace. "It's very dangerous to be president of Chechnya."
Mr. Malashenko suggested that some of the other candidates may not even want the job, and are running simply to boost their profiles within the republic and with the powers that be in Moscow, comfortable in the knowledge that it will be Mr. Kadyrov who will win the race and have to live knowing there are bullets out there with his name engraved on them.
"They understand very well they have no hope," Mr. Malashenko said of the other 10 who submitted their nomination papers yesterday. "With the exception of Kadyrov, none of them have a chance to become president."
Chechen rebels, meanwhile, are not only boycotting the vote; they have launched a large-scale campaign, including suicide bombings both inside Chechnya and in other parts of Russia.
The election, however, is a point of personal pride for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It represents the third phase of his effort to put the Chechen question behind him as he himself heads into an election year. In a March referendum that was again boycotted by the rebels, Chechens approved a constitution that allows the republic some autonomy, but keeps it within the Russian Federation.
Since the referendum, more than 140 rebels have reportedly accepted amnesty in exchange for laying down their arms by Sept. 1.
The election is supposed to round out the peace push, and though fugitive rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov, the man who won the republic's last presidential election seven years ago, is barred from running, the Kremlin says it will accept anyone else the people of Chechnya choose.
"The federal authorities are interested to see that the person who really enjoys support in Chechnya assumes power," presidential aide Sergei Yastrzhembsky said.
Few believe the race is so wide open, however, and many view the election as a Kremlin attempt to give Mr. Kadyrov's administration a stamp of legitimacy.
Useful polls are hard to come by, but one recently published survey showed Aslambek Aslakhanov, Chechnya's representative in the State Duma, to be the "most trusted" political figure among ordinary Chechens, with Mr. Kadyrov sitting a distant fourth. Other polls have suggested businessman Malik Saidullaeyev, who promises to turn Chechnya into an investment magnet, may be the legitimate front-runner, and Mr. Kadyrov recently fired his press minister for suggesting he would receive only 3 to 5 per cent in a truly fair vote.
Mr. Aslakhanov, an outspoken opponent of the war, says he's already been offered a large sum of money to drop out of the race, although he wouldn't say from whom.
He said he expects the race to get nastier as the Oct. 5 vote draws closer.
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