[lbo-talk] employment numbers, Canada & US

[Nathan Newman]

Doug- You've maintained for a long time that the rise of temp and
independent contractors was not significant, yet there is some evidence due
to the divergence between the payroll survey and the "household survey"
(which is reporting a strong rise in job growth, much of it assumed to be
self-employment) that new flexibility in hiring structures is playing a new
role in the economy.

Do you think the household survey numbers are just wrong, or might the
long-hailed rise of contingent work relationships be becoming a reality?

Nathan

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com>
To: <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org>
Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 1:25 PM
Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] employment numbers, Canada & US

The U.S. employment release was quite disappointing. Despite other
signs of an improving job market - lower unemployment claims, higher
employment components in the purchasing managers' (ISM) surveys,
improved confidence indexes - adding just 57,000 jobs is way
underwhelming. Manufacturing clocked its 40th consecutive month of
job loss. Retail also shrank, mainly because of the California
grocery strike (striking workers are counted as not employed) - but
there seemed to be no spate of pre-Xmas hiring, despite expectations
for a better shopping season. Also, real hourly earnings have been
trending downward for the last several months, after staying positive
through the recession and the weak recovery. I think the formulation
I've been working with - a cyclical recovery within a larger more
troubled trend - still holds.

Doug
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